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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY fell to 1.0% in January 2025
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased January 2025
Japan Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY fell to 1.0% in January 2025, down 0.1% from December's 1.1% reading. The print came in cooler than the 1.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.93%. Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY is now the lowest in 27 months.
Latest Release
1
Actual
1.2
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 1.15
Actual: 1
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Japan) was reported at 1% in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of 1.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.57%, up from the prior three at 1.43%. In January readings over the past 3 years, Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY has averaged 1.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jun 12) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY - JP
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About Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Tokyo, Japan, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, on a year-over-year basis. This indicator is used to track inflation trends in the city and provides valuable insights into the overall economic health of Tokyo. It is a key tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the impact of price changes on the local economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2025): actual 1 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 1.9 %. Before that (Oct 2024): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.