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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan CPI YoY fell to 1.6% in May 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan CPI YoY fell to 1.6% in May 2026, down 0.3% from April's 1.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
1.6
Consensus
1.9
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.6% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.6% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 18) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI YoY - JP
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About CPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's CPI YoY for May came in at 1.600000%, matching consensus exactly. This marks an increase from April's 1.5% and March's 1.4%, indicating a steady upward trend in inflation. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further inflation trajectory signals amid current monetary policy. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary headwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.