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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Services PMI climbed to 53.9 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Japan Services PMI climbed to 53.9 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 0.8 from January's 53.1 reading. The reading matched the 53.8 consensus. Services PMI has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Services PMI averaged 52.38, vs 51.47 in the prior 3-month window. Services PMI is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
53.9
Actual
53.8
Consensus
53.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 53.95
Actual: 53.9
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Services PMI (Japan) was reported at 53.90 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 53.80 by 0.10. The reading rose from the previous value of 53.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.36, ranging from 51.10 to 53.90 across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 53.60, up from the prior three at 51.53. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.02) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.40).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Services PMI - JP
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About Services PMI — Japan
DEFINITION
Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in a country. It provides valuable insights into the health of the economy by tracking changes in business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. A high Services PMI indicates a growing services sector, while a low PMI suggests a contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic outlook.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 53.9 %, consensus 53.8 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 53.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 53.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.81) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |