Services Pmi - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Japan Services PMI
52
Actual
52
Consensus
51.5
Previous
Japan’s Services PMI for December 2025 matched expectations at 52.00, slightly beating November’s 51.50 and signaling continued moderate expansion in the sector. The 0.50-point increase confirms steady growth above the 50 threshold, reflecting resilience amid mixed macroeconomic conditions. Looking ahead, the BoJ’s accommodative policy is likely to persist, supporting the services sector despite external risks and cautious market sentiment. Updated 12/3/25
Services Pmi - JP
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Japan Services PMI December 2025: Steady Expansion Amid Mixed Macroeconomic Signals
The latest Japan Services PMI for December 2025 held steady at 52.00, matching expectations and signaling ongoing moderate growth in the services sector. This reading marks a slight improvement from November’s 51.50 and aligns with a 12-month average near 51.70. Despite external headwinds and cautious monetary policy, the sector shows resilience. However, risks from geopolitical tensions and tightening financial conditions temper the outlook. This report draws on the Sigmanomics database and integrates macroeconomic, policy, and market perspectives to assess implications for Japan’s economy.
The Japan Services PMI for December 2025 registered at 52.00, unchanged from the September reading but up from 51.50 in November. This figure indicates continued expansion in the services sector, albeit at a moderate pace. The PMI has hovered around the 51–52 range for the past six months, reflecting steady but unspectacular growth. Compared to the 12-month average of 51.70, the current reading suggests stability rather than acceleration.
Drivers this month
Increased domestic demand supported by holiday season spending.
Improved business confidence amid easing COVID-19 restrictions.
Export-related services showed modest gains despite global uncertainties.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy, with short-term rates near zero and yield curve control in place. Inflation remains below the 2% target, and the steady PMI reading supports the BoJ’s cautious stance. However, recent global rate hikes and yen volatility pose risks to financial conditions.
Market lens
Following the PMI release, the USDJPY pair saw a mild 0.10% appreciation of the yen, reflecting cautious optimism. Japanese government bond yields remained stable, while equity markets showed limited reaction, indicating the data was largely priced in.
Japan’s services sector is a critical driver of GDP, accounting for over 70% of economic activity. The PMI’s steady expansion aligns with other core indicators. Industrial production rose 0.30% MoM in November, while retail sales increased 1.20% YoY. Unemployment held steady at 2.50%, near historic lows. Inflation remains subdued at 1.10% YoY, below the BoJ’s 2% target.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The BoJ’s policy rate remains at -0.10%, with yield curve control targeting 10-year JGB yields around 0.25%. Despite global tightening, Japan’s financial conditions have eased slightly due to yen strength and stable bond markets. However, imported inflation risks persist due to a weaker yen earlier in the year.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Japan’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with the government targeting a 1.20% GDP deficit for FY2025. Recent stimulus measures focus on digital transformation and green investment, supporting service sector modernization. However, rising debt levels (over 250% of GDP) constrain long-term fiscal flexibility.
The December 2025 Services PMI of 52.00 is a slight improvement from November’s 51.50 and consistent with the 12-month average of 51.70. This stability contrasts with the dip to 50.90 in October, indicating a reversal of the brief slowdown. The chart below illustrates the PMI’s steady upward trend since mid-2025, reflecting resilience amid mixed economic signals.
Key figure: The PMI’s 0.50-point rise from November signals renewed momentum in services activity, driven by domestic demand and easing supply constraints.
Comparing the current reading to historical data, the PMI remains below the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 53.20 but above the 2020 low of 44.50 during the initial COVID-19 shock. The steady range between 51 and 52 over recent months suggests a plateau in growth rather than acceleration.
This chart highlights the services sector’s resilience, trending upward after a brief dip in October. The PMI’s stability supports expectations of moderate economic growth, though it signals limited upside without stronger external demand or fiscal stimulus.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The N225 index edged up 0.30% in the hour following the PMI release, reflecting investor confidence in steady service sector growth. The BTCUSD pair showed muted volatility, indicating limited spillover effects into risk assets.
Looking ahead, the services sector faces a mix of opportunities and risks. Domestic consumption is expected to remain robust, supported by wage growth and easing pandemic restrictions. However, external demand may weaken due to global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Stronger-than-expected global recovery boosts exports and business services.
Government accelerates fiscal stimulus focused on digital and green sectors.
BoJ maintains accommodative policy, supporting credit growth.
The BoJ’s cautious stance will likely persist until inflation sustainably exceeds 2%. Fiscal policy may provide targeted support but is constrained by debt concerns. Monitoring PMI trends will be critical for timely policy adjustments.
Japan’s December 2025 Services PMI confirms ongoing moderate expansion in the services sector. The steady reading at 52.00 reflects resilience amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. While domestic demand supports growth, external risks and cautious monetary policy limit upside potential. Investors and policymakers should watch for shifts in PMI trends as early signals of economic momentum changes.
Overall, the services sector remains a pillar of Japan’s economy, but sustained growth will depend on navigating geopolitical risks, financial market volatility, and structural reforms.
Key Markets Likely to React to Services PMI
The Japan Services PMI is a vital gauge of economic health, influencing several key markets. The N225 (Nikkei 225) often moves in tandem with PMI shifts, reflecting investor sentiment on corporate earnings. The USDJPY currency pair reacts to changes in economic outlook and monetary policy expectations. In crypto markets, BTCUSD can reflect risk appetite shifts tied to macro data. Additionally, the TYO index and EURJPY pair also show sensitivity to Japan’s economic indicators.
Insight: Japan Services PMI vs. Nikkei 225 Since 2020
Since 2020, the Japan Services PMI and the Nikkei 225 index have shown a positive correlation, with the PMI acting as a leading indicator for equity market performance. Periods of PMI expansion above 50 generally coincide with upward trends in the Nikkei 225, while contractions below 50 precede market downturns. This relationship underscores the PMI’s value as a barometer for investor confidence in Japan’s economic trajectory.
FAQs
What does the Japan Services PMI indicate?
The Japan Services PMI measures the health of the services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 contraction.
How does the Services PMI affect monetary policy?
Steady or rising PMI readings support the central bank’s accommodative stance, while declines may prompt policy reassessment.
Why is the Services PMI important for investors?
It provides early signals on economic momentum, influencing equity, currency, and bond markets.
Takeaway: Japan’s services sector continues moderate growth, but external risks and cautious policy keep upside limited. Monitoring PMI trends remains essential for economic and market forecasts.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.2
1.8
2
1.88
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
36.2
38.3
38.9
38.18
High
Monday, May 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
112.2
112.1
111.4
111.60
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.6
111.5
113.9
114.45
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0
0.02
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.7
2.3
2.30
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.2
2.18
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.53
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.6
54.3
53.8
53.82
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.5
49.6
49.7
50.15
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.3
52.2
52.28
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.9
7.7
-2.2
-0.15
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-462.5
366.5
-339.5
-180.45
High
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
8.3
7.3
11.1
11.45
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
2.7
-1.8
0.3
1.78
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
8.3
-5.1
9
8.40
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
9
7
8.50
Medium
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-2.4
2.2
0.1
-0.18
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.2
-3.9
-6.7
-6.72
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
4.4
-0.6
3.8
3.88
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
1.3
-0.5
0.2
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.32
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.5
0
-0.4
-0.52
High
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-2
0
-1.5
-2.00
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.33
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.8
1.8
0.4
0.05
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-11.6
-3.8
-7.5
-8.43
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.22
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.92
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.4
49.8
50.4
49.82
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
48.5
51.2
51.3
50.65
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
3398.8
2644.2
3489.6
3524.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1.2
-0.5
-2.4
-2.12
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.2
1.4
-0.3
-0.32
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.9
111.5
111
111.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.4
112.1
111
111.20
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-1.5
-1.6
-0.6
-1.05
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.6
1.4
1.5
1.67
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.3
54.1
54.6
54.62
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
51.7
52.6
52.68
Low
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38.3
39.5
39.7
38.98
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-12.8
-8.2
-7.6
-8.88
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
31.4
-11
4.3
9.55
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.7
-3.9
-6.6
-6.62
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
1.5
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
3.8
-0.6
3.4
3.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.2
4.7
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.28
1.26
1.26
1.26
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.8
2.6
2.6
2.48
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
1.4
2.9
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
111.6
112.3
110.9
111.45
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.8
112.00
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
48.2
48
48.45
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.6
54.1
54
54.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.6
51.7
52
52.08
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.70
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.2
3
2.93
Low
05:00
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
1.5
-0.5
0.8
0.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
366.5
-377.8
-280
-120.95
High
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
10
9
10.50
Medium
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-1.8
-10.9
-8
-6.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7.7
-1.7
-0.2
1.85
Medium
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.9
-1.5
-3.4
-3.42
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.5
-7.9
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.6
-6.7
-0.1
-0.02
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.2
3
3.1
3.13
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.82
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8.5
-8
-5
-5.93
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.5
39
39.7
38.98
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
51.2
53
52.9
52.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
49.8
51.3
51.5
50.92
Low
Sunday, April 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
2644.2
438.2
3112.5
3147.42
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1.8
2
1.4
1.57
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.9
112.1
112
112.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.6
111.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-0.5
-6.3
-3
-2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.4
-2.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.7
50.6
52.3
52.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.1
52.9
54.9
54.92
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
Sunday, March 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Tankan Large All Industry Capex
4
13.5
9.2
6.60
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
10
8
11
10.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index
34
32
33
33.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
27
27
30
28.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
-1
2
-2
-1.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
11
13
10
10.50
High
Friday, March 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.2
-7.5
-5.5
-6.78
Medium
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2
-2.02
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-6.7
1.4
1.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
4.6
2.1
3
3.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
1.5
0.2
0.4
0.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.1
2.5
2.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.30
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.26
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.5
109.9
109.9
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
112.1
115.9
110.2
110.75
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.23
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2.2
3
3.00
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2
2.8
2.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0
0.2
0.22
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.9
52.9
53.4
53.42
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
50.6
50.9
50.98
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
7.8
11.9
5.3
5.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-379.4
-1760.3
-810.2
-651.15
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
0.5
-9.8
2.2
1.60
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
10
-1
3
4.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-7.9
0.2
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-6.7
1.2
-7.5
-7.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-1
-1.5
-1.52
Low
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0
-0.1
0
0.00
High
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-1.7
1.9
-1
1.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-10.9
-0.7
-11.2
-9.72
Medium
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.08
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
-6.7
5.7
6.2
-0.25
Low
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.52
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8
-14.1
-10
-10.93
Low
Sunday, March 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.9
5.2
3.8
3.83
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.2
0.18
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
2
-0.6
2.5
2.15
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
0.4
-3.2
1.1
0.60
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
53
52.5
52.4
51.75
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
51.3
50.2
50.1
49.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.2
116
115.4
115.95
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
110.5
110.1
110.30
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3
3.1
2.9
2.93
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
438.2
744.3
-330.4
-295.48
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-6.3
-2.5
-4.3
-4.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.1
-0.9
0.4
0.38
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2
1
0.5
0.67
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.6
51.5
50.3
50.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.9
53.1
52.5
52.52
Medium
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
1.8
2.1
1.98
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.5
1.8
2.5
2.40
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Spending YoY
16.4
3.4
1.9
9.15
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.1
38
38.3
37.58
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
47.2
47.65
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-7.5
-4
-7.7
-8.98
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.1
0.4
4
9.25
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-7.5
1.4
-7.3
-7.22
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
-2.9
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-0.7
-1.1
-1.12
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.35
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.6
116.2
116.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
108.1
110
110.20
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.3
1.8
1.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.1
2.10
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.5
3.7
3.2
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.1
53.2
53.22
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.3
51.5
51.6
51.68
Low
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
11.9
9.7
9.5
9.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-1758.3
68.9
-1925.9
-1766.85
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-9.6
-6.9
-8.4
-9.00
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-1
6
7
8.50
Medium
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.7
-4.9
2.5
4.55
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-0.7
-5
-1.4
0.08
Medium
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.7
-1.4
-0.3
-0.58
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.72
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
-0.75
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.4
-0.9
1.8
1.88
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.3
0.28
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.8
5.3
4
4.03
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
High
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-0.4
-3.3
1.4
0.90
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.05
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-14.1
-9.6
-6
-6.93
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0
0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.12
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.2
51.8
51
50.42
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
52.5
50.4
49.7
49.05
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
744.3
1925.6
1018.9
1053.82
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.23
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
116.2
114.6
115.2
115.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110
108.1
109.4
109.60
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-0.9
-1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.5
-2.9
-2.1
-1.82
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1
0.2
1.3
1.47
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.5
50
51.1
51.18
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.1
51.5
52.7
52.72
Medium
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48
48.45
Medium
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38
37.2
37.6
36.88
High
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-4
-8.5
-6.2
-7.48
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
0.4
33.6
1.1
6.35
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.1
5.4
4.7
4.75
Medium
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
-1.4
0.7
0.68
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-2.9
1
0.5
0.42
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.8
-0.9
2.4
2.48
Medium
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.28
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.55
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.6
108.9
107.7
107.90
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.6
115.9
114.5
115.05
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.08
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.1
1.9
1.80
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.32
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.1
50
49.5
49.58
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.7
51.5
51
51.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48.2
48.65
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
62.1
-780.4
-122.1
36.95
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-6.8
-11.9
-5.3
-5.90
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
9.8
-0.2
9.1
9.45
Medium
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.10
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.08
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.73
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
0.3
1.5
-0.4
-1.55
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.4
1.1
-1.4
-1.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.9
-0.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-5
-2.2
0.2
1.68
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-4.9
0.7
-0.8
1.25
Medium
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
6
12
11
12.50
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.3
0
0.02
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0
0.3
-0.3
-0.28
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-9.9
-13.6
-9
-9.93
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.7
49.5
49.9
49.32
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
49.1
49.4
49.3
48.65
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.83
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
1925.6
2582.8
2385.1
2420.02
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
115.9
116
116.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.7
108.9
109
109.20
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.2
1.5
1.5
1.67
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.9
-2.5
-2.3
-2.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-1
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.42
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.00
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.38
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
36.1
36
35.28
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50
49.6
50.4
50.48
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.5
50.8
52
52.02
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.3
47.7
48.15
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Services PMI in JP Shows Moderate Growth in December 2025 Japan Services PMI Holds Steady at 52.00 in Latest Report The Services PMI in JP, a key indicator measuring the health of the services sector where values above 50 signal expansion, registered at 52.00 for December 2025. This matches market expectations and marks a slight rise from November’s 51.50, indicating continued moderate growth. Fast facts: the annual average hovers near 51.70, the month-over-month increase is 0.50 points, and the data was released on December 3, 2025. According to Morgan Stanley, “The steady Services PMI reading reflects resilience in domestic demand despite global uncertainties and cautious monetary policy.” The Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose stance supports this stability, but risks from geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions remain. Overall, the JP services sector shows steady momentum, though upside gains may be limited without stronger external demand or fiscal stimulus.
The December 2025 Services PMI of 52.00 is a slight improvement from November’s 51.50 and consistent with the 12-month average of 51.70. This stability contrasts with the dip to 50.90 in October, indicating a reversal of the brief slowdown. The chart below illustrates the PMI’s steady upward trend since mid-2025, reflecting resilience amid mixed economic signals.
Key figure: The PMI’s 0.50-point rise from November signals renewed momentum in services activity, driven by domestic demand and easing supply constraints.