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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan S&P Global Composite PMI held to 52.3 Points in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan S&P Global Composite PMI held to 52.3 Points in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched the 51.9 Points consensus.
Latest Release
52.300000
Actual
51.900000
Consensus
52.300000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.47
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 51.76
Actual: 52.3
Error: -0.54
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI (Japan) was reported at 52.30 Points in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51.90 Points by 0.40 Points. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.45 Points, ranging from 51.10 Points to 53.90 Points across 17 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 52.37 Points, down from the prior three at 53.20 Points. In October readings over the past 3 years, S&P Global Composite PMI has averaged 51.97 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.47 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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S&P Global Composite PMI - JP
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About S&P Global Composite PMI — Japan
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Composite PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall economic health of a country by combining the manufacturing and services sectors. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the economy, as well as future trends, and is used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. With its comprehensive and timely data, the S&P Global Composite PMI is a crucial tool for understanding the performance of the global economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 52.3 Points, consensus 51.9 Points. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 52.3 Points. Before that (Sep 2026): 52.5 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |