Japan's household spending fell 1.0% YoY in February, improving from January's -2.6%. The contraction narrowed for the first time in three months, signaling tentative stabilization amid persistent consumer headwinds.

Japan Household Spending YoY: February Data Shows Contraction Eases

Japan’s household spending contracted 1.0% year-over-year in February 2026, according to official data released March 9. The reading marks a notable improvement from January’s -2.6% and outperformed consensus estimates of -2.2%[1].

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Food and beverages: -0.35pp
Transport and communication: -0.22pp
Housing: +0.09pp
Education: +0.05pp

Policy pulse

Household spending remains below the Bank of Japan’s target for sustained domestic demand growth. The central bank continues to monitor consumer activity as a key gauge for policy normalization.

Market lens

Japanese equities opened flat after the release. Investors weighed the smaller-than-expected contraction against ongoing wage and price pressures. The yen held steady, reflecting a wait-and-see stance on the path for household consumption.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

February 2026: -1.0% YoY
January 2026: -2.6% YoY
December 2025: -2.9% YoY
October 2025: +2.3% YoY
September 2025: +1.4% YoY
August 2025: +1.3% YoY

Methodology

Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications surveys thousands of households monthly, adjusting for seasonal and demographic factors. The YoY figure compares total nominal spending to the same month a year earlier.

Market lens

Bond yields were little changed. The muted reaction reflects market confidence that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current stance until a clearer uptrend in spending emerges.

Chart Dynamics

February’s -1.0% YoY print marks a significant rebound from January’s -2.6%, and is above the 12-month average of approximately +0.6%. The last positive reading was in January, at +2.9%, before the recent downturn began.

Spending has now contracted for two consecutive months, but the pace of decline is slowing. Compared to December’s -2.9%, the latest data suggests a tentative bottoming out.

Line chart showing Japan Household Spending YoY from May 2025 (+2.1%) through February 2026 (-1.0%), highlighting recent negative readings and a slight recovery in February. — Household Spending YoY trend (May 2025 – February 2026)

What This Chart Tells Us: The chart illustrates a sharp swing from positive growth in late 2025 to a pronounced contraction in early 2026. February’s improvement signals that the worst of the pullback may be over, but a sustained recovery is not yet evident.

Forward Outlook

Scenario analysis

Bullish (20%): Wage growth and fiscal support drive a return to positive spending by Q2 2026.
Base (60%): Spending remains near zero or slightly negative as households adjust to higher prices and modest income gains.
Bearish (20%): Persistent inflation and weak wage growth deepen the contraction, risking a prolonged slump.

Risks and catalysts

Upside risks include stronger-than-expected spring wage negotiations and targeted government subsidies. Downside risks stem from energy price volatility and a potential slowdown in global demand.

Market lens

Currency traders remain cautious. The yen’s muted response reflects uncertainty over the durability of any rebound in household consumption.

Closing Thoughts

Key takeaways

February’s -1.0% YoY reading signals a slower pace of contraction.
Spending remains below pre-pandemic averages, underscoring persistent consumer caution.
Markets are watching for signs of a sustained turnaround in domestic demand.

Market lens

Equity and bond markets showed limited reaction. Investors are waiting for more consistent evidence of a recovery in household spending before adjusting positions.

Key Markets Reacting to Household Spending YoY

Japan’s household spending data influences a range of global markets, from equities to currencies. The latest figures are closely watched by investors seeking signals on domestic demand, monetary policy, and risk sentiment. Below are key tradable symbols that have shown sensitivity to Japanese consumer trends.

AAPL (US equities): Correlates with global consumer sentiment and supply chain exposure to Japan.
USDJPY (Forex): Directly impacted by shifts in Japanese consumption and monetary policy outlook.
BTCUSD (Crypto): Sensitive to risk-on/risk-off flows tied to Japanese macroeconomic data.

Year	Household Spending YoY (%)	USDJPY Trend
2020	-5.3	Appreciated (risk aversion)
2022	+1.2	Depreciated (recovery optimism)
2024	-2.0	Appreciated (growth concerns)
2026 (YTD)	-1.8 (avg)	Stable (policy wait-and-see)

Since 2020, USDJPY has tended to appreciate during periods of sharp household spending contraction, reflecting safe-haven flows. The current stabilization in spending has coincided with a steadier currency trend.

FAQ: Japan Household Spending YoY: February Data Shows Contraction Eases

What does the latest Japan Household Spending YoY data show?: Japan’s household spending fell 1.0% year-over-year in February, a smaller contraction than January’s -2.6%.
Why is household spending important for Japan’s economy?: Household spending accounts for more than half of Japan’s GDP and is a key indicator of domestic demand strength.
How did markets react to the February household spending data?: Markets were largely unmoved, with equities and the yen showing limited response as investors await clearer signs of recovery.

Japan’s household spending contraction narrowed in February, offering a tentative sign of stabilization but not yet a clear recovery.

Updated 3/10/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

[1] Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan. Household Spending Survey. Data as of February 2026. Accessed via Sigmanomics database.

Economic Calendar - JP Events

Wednesday, March 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ	3.8	4.7	5.5	4.65	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	-	25.3	22.5	24.35	Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	-0.1	0.2	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2	2.3	2.1	2.08	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	24.2	25.3	25.3	27.15	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
Monday, March 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Annualized	1.3	-2.6	1.2	1.25	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.3	-0.7	0.3	0.30	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	1.3	-0.2	0.2	-39002.72	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.38	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.13	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.12	High
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.5	-2.2	0.8	0.68	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	-	0.9	1	1.23	Low
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-1	-2.6	2.5	1.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	3	2.4	2.5	2.52	Low
22:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-	0.1	0.3	0.32	High
17:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0	0.02	Low
07:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48	48.07	Low
06:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48.2	48.27	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	112.4	110.3	113	113.10	Low
04:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	111	113.2	113.30	Low
01:15	JP	Current Account	941.6	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.53	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3.15	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	3.3	1.5	1	1.23	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	40	37.9	38.1	38.37	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.8	53.7	53.8	53.70	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.90	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
17:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	-	53.7	53.8	53.70	Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Capital Expenditure YoY	6.5	2.9	2.3	4.40	Medium
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-10.6	-9.5	-9.8	-10.10	Low
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.2	1.19	1.19	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	53	51.5	52.8	53.08	Low
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	5.7	20.2	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-0.4	-1.3	-2	-2.70	Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	2.6	1.2	2.03	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1.8	-0.9	-0.6	-0.48	Medium
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	4.1	-2	1.5	2.22	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	1.8	2	1.8	1.73	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.48	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.22	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.3	114.9	114.5	114.28	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	1.1	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.6	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
22:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
22:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
22:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.8	53.1	52.5	52.73	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52.8	51.5	52	52.25	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.8	53.7	53.3	53.65	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52.8	51.5	51.3	51.58	Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	1.5	2.1	1.9	1.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2	2.4	2.3	2.22	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	2.6	2.9	2.8	2.72	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	19.1	-11	8.5	10.65	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	16.8	-6.4	2	2.68	Medium
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.46	-0.06	-0.18	0.05	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	16.8	5.1	12	13.53	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-2.5	5.2	3	1.32	Low
Monday, February 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-0.1	-2.7	-0.1	-0.13	Low
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	1.3	-5.3	3	1.05	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	2.6	3.43	Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.23	Low
23:50	JP	GDP External Demand QoQ	0	-0.2	0.1	0.05	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	0.2	-0.2	156013	117010.08	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.4	3.5	3.48	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0.1	0.12	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.2	-2.6	1.6	0.90	Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.17	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.28	Low
08:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	25.3	10.9	9.5	11.35	Low
Monday, February 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.1	50.5	50.3	50.25	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	47.6	48.6	48.8	48.87	Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Current Account	7288	3674	1400	2202.13	Medium
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.6	4.63	Low
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	0.9	1.2	1.6	1.83	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	2.4	0.5	1	1.02	Low
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.5	114.9	115.3	115.08	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.2	109.9	110.3	110.32	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.2	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
03:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-2.6	2.9	3.2	2.28	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.9	6.2	-2	-2.12	Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.30	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.90	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.25	Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.5	-9.8	-10.3	-10.60	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.78	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.67	Low
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-1.3	-8.5	-4.4	-5.10	Medium
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	20.2	9.5	-3	-0.60	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	-1.3	-0.47	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-0.9	1.1	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.19	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	CPI	1.5	2	1.8	1.78	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2	2.3	2.2	2.13	Low
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.9	37.2	37.6	37.87	High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.9	115.9	115.2	114.98	Low
Monday, January 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.52	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-1	-1.3	-0.7	-0.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.1	0.9	0.7	0.55	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.60	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	-	0.75	0.75	0.75	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.1	50.9	51.13	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.6	51.5	51.85	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50	50.3	50.55	Medium
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	-	50	50.1	50.27	Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Low
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	-	2.9	2.7	2.60	High
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	-	0.4	0.2	0.40	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	-	0.06	-0.06	0.17	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-	1.3	3.6	1.93	Low
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	-	6.1	6.1	7.63	Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	-5.3	3.3	0.8	-1.15	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.2	1.6	-2.1	-1.27	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-2.7	1.5	-2.6	-2.63	Low
04:30	JP	Tertiary Industry Index MoM	-0.2	0.9	0.3	0.05	Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	-11	7	-4	-1.85	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	-6.4	12.5	13.2	13.88	Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.4	2.7	2.4	2.38	Low
23:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	10.6	14.2	14.2	16.05	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.5	50.3	50.5	50.45	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.6	48.7	48.8	48.87	Low
Monday, January 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.4	4.2	4.1	4.13	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3674	2834	3594	4396.13	Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.2	115.9	116.2	115.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.42	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.7	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.7	1	0.5	0.22	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.50	Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	6.2	-3.5	2.7	2.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	2.9	-3	-0.9	-1.82	Medium
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.2	37.5	37.8	38.07	High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	1.2	1.5	1.4	1.63	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	0.5	2.6	2.3	2.32	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.1	52	51.5	51.50	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.40	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.35	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.8	-8.7	-8	-8.30	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.98	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.87	Low
Friday, December 26, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	-	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.1	1.6	1.4	2.23	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	0.6	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2.3	2.8	2.5	2.43	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.48	Low
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	9.5	-10.1	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-8.5	3.2	0.4	-0.30	Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
06:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
06:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
05:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.8	108.2	110	110.02	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.9	114.9	115.4	115.18	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.8	108.6	110	110.10	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:30	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	2.9	3	2.9	2.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3	3	3	2.92	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	0.4	0.4	0	0.20	Low
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	3	3.1	3.1	3.03	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	3	3	3	2.98	Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.06	0.07	-0.2	0.02	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	12.5	11.6	3.6	4.28	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	6.1	3.6	4.8	6.33	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	1.3	0.7	2.5	0.82	Low
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	7	4.2	-2.3	-0.15	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.5	53.2	51.6	51.95	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	49.7	48.7	49.5	49.75	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	51.5	52	51.9	52.13	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	49.7	48.7	49	49.17	Low