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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Household Spending YoY fell to -3.3% in June 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Household Spending YoY fell to -3.3% in June 2026, released August 2026, down 2.9% from May's -0.4% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 4.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.16%. Over the past 3 months, Household Spending YoY averaged -1.7%, vs -1.4% in the prior 3-month window. Household Spending YoY is now the lowest in 28 months.
Latest Release
-3.3
Actual
1
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.29 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.85
Actual: -3.3
Error: +4.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Household Spending YoY (Japan) was reported at -3.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 4.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.74%, ranging from -3.3% to 2.9% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.23%, down from the prior three at -0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.28%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.37%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Household Spending YoY has averaged -1.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.29%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Machinery Orders MoM (Aug 18) and Machinery Orders YoY (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Household Spending YoY - JP
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About Household Spending YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Household Spending YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of money spent by households over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall consumer spending behavior and can be used to assess the health of the economy. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in household spending, while a negative growth suggests a decrease. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can impact various industries and markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -3.3 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 4.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.88 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.8 | -1 | -0.75 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.9 | -2.1 | 4.2 | 4.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.48 | Low |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | -12.4 | 7.8 | 7.15 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | -1.9 | 10.8 | 11.50 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 25.4 | 26.5 | 27.20 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -406.9 | -680 | -514.20 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 19.3 | 19.9 | 22.65 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.88 | -0.44 | -0.21 | Medium | |