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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Household Spending YoY climbed to -3.1% in August 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Household Spending YoY climbed to -3.1% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from July's -3.6% reading. The print exceeded the -3.6% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.9%. Over the past 3 months, Household Spending YoY averaged -3.45%, vs -1.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 12th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3.1
Actual
-3.6
Consensus
-3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.96 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -3.75
Actual: -3.6
Error: -0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Household Spending YoY (Japan) was reported at -3.1% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.6% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.75%, ranging from -3.6% to 2.9% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.47%, down from the prior three at -2.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.04%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.34%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Household Spending YoY has averaged -0.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.96%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 9) and Machinery Orders MoM (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Household Spending YoY - JP
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About Household Spending YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Household Spending YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of money spent by households over a 12-month period. It provides insight into the overall consumer spending behavior and can be used to assess the health of the economy. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in household spending, while a negative growth suggests a decrease. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can impact various industries and markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -3.1 %, consensus -3.6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -3.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 47.4 | 48.3 | 48 | 47.70 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 47 | 46.4 | 46.8 | 46.90 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending YoY | -3.1 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -3.35 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.30 | Medium |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |