Japan’s Retail Sales YoY rose 1.80% in January 2026, sharply beating the -0.60% estimate and reversing December’s -0.90% decline. This marks the largest month-over-month improvement in over a year, with January’s gain well above the 12-month average of 1.20%, signaling renewed consumer momentum. The Bank of Japan remains data-dependent, while the yen strengthened modestly on the surprise rebound. Updated 2/27/26
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Retail Sales YOY - JP
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Japan’s retail sales rebounded 1.8% YoY in January, reversing December’s -0.9% drop. The sharpest monthly swing in over a year signals renewed consumer momentum.
Japan Retail Sales YoY: January’s Rebound Signals Consumer Resilience
Policy pulse: January’s 1.8% YoY rise outpaces the Bank of Japan’s neutral retail growth stance.
Market lens: JPY strengthened modestly on the surprise rebound, with equities mixed as investors weighed the sustainability of the upturn. The sharp reversal from December’s contraction to January’s growth has revived hopes for a steadier consumer sector, though volatility remains a concern.
Foundational Indicators
January 2026 retail sales YoY: 1.8%
December 2025: -0.9%
November 2025: 1.0%
12-month average (Feb 2025–Jan 2026): 1.2%
Highest in past year: 3.3% (May 2025)
Lowest in past year: -1.1% (September 2025)
Japan’s retail sales have swung sharply over the past year, with January’s print marking the largest month-over-month improvement since May 2025. The latest figure stands 2.7 percentage points above December’s reading and 0.6 points above the 12-month average.
Chart Dynamics
January’s 1.8% YoY gain follows December’s -0.9% contraction and sits above the 12-month average of 1.2%. The swing from negative to positive territory is the sharpest since mid-2025, when retail sales dropped from 3.3% in May to 2.2% in June. The latest data breaks a two-month streak of subpar growth, restoring momentum to a sector that had shown signs of fatigue in late 2025.
Compared to August’s 0.3% and September’s -1.1%, the current reading underscores the volatility that has characterized Japan’s retail landscape. The improvement in January reflects both a rebound in consumer sentiment and a favorable base effect, as last year’s winter period saw weaker spending.
Retail Sales YoY trend (Feb 2025–Jan 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The retail sales trend highlights Japan’s consumer sector resilience, with January’s sharp rebound breaking a recent downtrend. The data suggests renewed spending power, but the underlying volatility signals that sustained growth is not yet assured.
Forward Outlook
Bullish scenario (30–40% probability): Retail sales maintain 1.5–2.5% YoY growth through Q1, supported by wage gains and stable inflation.
Base case (45–55% probability): Growth moderates to 0.5–1.5% YoY as pent-up demand fades and external headwinds persist.
Bearish scenario (15–25% probability): Sales slip back toward zero or negative territory if consumer confidence weakens or global shocks emerge.
Upside risks include further labor market tightening and fiscal stimulus. Downside risks stem from yen volatility and external demand shocks. The Bank of Japan’s stance remains data-dependent, with no explicit retail sales target. Data source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Sigmanomics database. Methodology: year-over-year comparison of nominal retail sales, seasonally adjusted.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens: FX traders responded to the retail sales rebound with renewed interest in the yen, while equity markets showed a muted reaction as investors weighed the sustainability of the upturn.
Policy pulse: The Bank of Japan has not signaled any imminent policy shift based on retail sales alone, but the data will factor into broader economic assessments.
January’s print restores optimism for Japan’s consumer sector, but the path ahead remains uneven given recent volatility and global uncertainties.
Key Markets Reacting to Retail Sales YoY
Japan’s retail sales data often moves both currency and equity markets. The January rebound triggered a modest uptick in the yen and selective gains in consumer-focused stocks. Below are key symbols directly impacted by the latest figures:
AAPL: Apple’s Japan sales are sensitive to consumer spending swings, with retail data often foreshadowing quarterly performance.
USDJPY: The yen typically strengthens on positive retail surprises, reflecting improved domestic demand outlook.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s correlation with risk sentiment means Japanese retail trends can influence local crypto flows.
Year
Retail Sales YoY (%)
USDJPY (avg)
2020
-1.5
106.8
2021
2.1
109.7
2022
1.7
131.5
2023
2.4
139.9
2024
1.2
145.3
2025
1.3
148.7
Since 2020, periods of stronger retail sales in Japan have coincided with a firmer yen, as seen in the USDJPY trend. The relationship is not linear but remains a key market focus.
FAQ: Japan Retail Sales YoY: January’s Rebound Signals Consumer Resilience
What is the main takeaway from Japan’s January retail sales data?
Japan’s retail sales rose 1.8% YoY in January, reversing a -0.9% decline in December and signaling renewed consumer momentum.
How does this rebound compare to recent trends?
The 1.8% gain is the sharpest month-over-month improvement in over a year, outpacing the 12-month average of 1.2%.
What does the latest data mean for investors?
Stronger retail sales have boosted the yen and revived optimism for consumer-facing sectors, though volatility remains a risk.
Japan’s retail sector has regained its footing, but the path forward remains volatile.
Updated 2/27/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan: Official Retail Sales Statistics, Jan 2026 release.
Sigmanomics Economic Database: Japan Retail Sales YoY historical series, 2020–2026.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
3.8
4.7
5.5
4.65
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-
25.3
22.5
24.35
Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2
2.3
2.1
2.08
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
24.2
25.3
25.3
27.15
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
Monday, March 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
1.3
-2.6
1.2
1.25
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
-0.7
0.3
0.30
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.3
-0.2
0.2
-39002.72
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.38
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.12
High
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.5
-2.2
0.8
0.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-
0.9
1
1.23
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1
-2.6
2.5
1.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
3
2.4
2.5
2.52
Low
22:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
17:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0
0.02
Low
07:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48
48.07
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48.2
48.27
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
112.4
110.3
113
113.10
Low
04:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
111
113.2
113.30
Low
01:15
JP
Current Account
941.6
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.53
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3.15
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
3.3
1.5
1
1.23
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
40
37.9
38.1
38.37
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
53.7
53.8
53.70
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.90
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
-
53.7
53.8
53.70
Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Expenditure YoY
6.5
2.9
2.3
4.40
Medium
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-10.6
-9.5
-9.8
-10.10
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.2
1.19
1.19
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
53
51.5
52.8
53.08
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
5.7
20.2
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-0.4
-1.3
-2
-2.70
Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
2.6
1.2
2.03
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.8
-0.9
-0.6
-0.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
4.1
-2
1.5
2.22
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
1.8
2
1.8
1.73
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.22
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.3
114.9
114.5
114.28
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
1.1
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.6
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
22:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
22:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.8
53.1
52.5
52.73
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52.8
51.5
52
52.25
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.8
53.7
53.3
53.65
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.8
51.5
51.3
51.58
Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.4
2.3
2.22
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.72
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
19.1
-11
8.5
10.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
16.8
-6.4
2
2.68
Medium
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.46
-0.06
-0.18
0.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
16.8
5.1
12
13.53
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-2.5
5.2
3
1.32
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-2.7
-0.1
-0.13
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
1.3
-5.3
3
1.05
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
2.6
3.43
Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0
-0.2
0.1
0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.2
-0.2
156013
117010.08
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.48
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.2
-2.6
1.6
0.90
Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.28
Low
08:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
25.3
10.9
9.5
11.35
Low
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.1
50.5
50.3
50.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.6
48.6
48.8
48.87
Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
7288
3674
1400
2202.13
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.63
Low
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.83
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2.4
0.5
1
1.02
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
114.9
115.3
115.08
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
109.9
110.3
110.32
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.2
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
03:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.6
2.9
3.2
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.9
6.2
-2
-2.12
Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.30
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.90
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.25
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.5
-9.8
-10.3
-10.60
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.78
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.67
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-1.3
-8.5
-4.4
-5.10
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
20.2
9.5
-3
-0.60
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-0.47
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
1.1
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
CPI
1.5
2
1.8
1.78
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2
2.3
2.2
2.13
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.9
37.2
37.6
37.87
High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.9
115.9
115.2
114.98
Low
Monday, January 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-1
-1.3
-0.7
-0.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.55
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.60
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-
0.75
0.75
0.75
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.1
50.9
51.13
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.6
51.5
51.85
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50
50.3
50.55
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
-
50
50.1
50.27
Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
-
2.9
2.7
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
-
0.4
0.2
0.40
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
0.06
-0.06
0.17
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-
1.3
3.6
1.93
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
-
6.1
6.1
7.63
Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
-5.3
3.3
0.8
-1.15
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.2
1.6
-2.1
-1.27
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-2.7
1.5
-2.6
-2.63
Low
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.05
Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-11
7
-4
-1.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-6.4
12.5
13.2
13.88
Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.38
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
10.6
14.2
14.2
16.05
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.5
50.3
50.5
50.45
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.87
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.13
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3674
2834
3594
4396.13
Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.2
115.9
116.2
115.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.42
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.7
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.7
1
0.5
0.22
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.50
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
6.2
-3.5
2.7
2.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
2.9
-3
-0.9
-1.82
Medium
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.07
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.63
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.5
2.6
2.3
2.32
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.1
52
51.5
51.50
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.40
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.35
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.8
-8.7
-8
-8.30
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.98
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.87
Low
Friday, December 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
1.6
1.4
2.23
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.43
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.5
-10.1
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.5
3.2
0.4
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
06:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
05:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.8
108.2
110
110.02
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.9
115.4
115.18
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.8
108.6
110
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
2.92
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.4
0
0.20
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3
3.1
3.1
3.03
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
3
3
3
2.98
Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.06
0.07
-0.2
0.02
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
12.5
11.6
3.6
4.28
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
6.1
3.6
4.8
6.33
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
1.3
0.7
2.5
0.82
Low
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7
4.2
-2.3
-0.15
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.5
53.2
51.6
51.95
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
49.7
48.7
49.5
49.75
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
51.5
52
51.9
52.13
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
48.7
49
49.17
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Japan Retail Sales Rise 1.80 Percent in January Report Retail sales measure the total value of goods sold by retailers, reflecting consumer spending trends in the economy. Japan’s retail sales increased by 1.80% compared to January last year, reversing December’s 0.90% decline and surpassing expectations of a 0.60% drop. This latest report, released on February 26, 2026, highlights a strong rebound in consumer activity after several months of sluggish growth. The sharp improvement suggests renewed confidence among Japanese shoppers, supported by stable wage growth and easing inflation pressures. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that this rebound could signal a more resilient domestic demand, which may influence the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. “The January retail sales data points to a tentative recovery in consumer spending, but volatility remains a key risk,” said economist Keiko Tanaka of Nomura Securities.
January’s 1.8% YoY gain follows December’s -0.9% contraction and sits above the 12-month average of 1.2%. The swing from negative to positive territory is the sharpest since mid-2025, when retail sales dropped from 3.3% in May to 2.2% in June. The latest data breaks a two-month streak of subpar growth, restoring momentum to a sector that had shown signs of fatigue in late 2025.
Compared to August’s 0.3% and September’s -1.1%, the current reading underscores the volatility that has characterized Japan’s retail landscape. The improvement in January reflects both a rebound in consumer sentiment and a favorable base effect, as last year’s winter period saw weaker spending.