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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Consumer Confidence climbed to 33.6% in May 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Consumer Confidence climbed to 33.6% in May 2026, up 1.4% from April's 32.2% reading. The print exceeded the 32.0% consensus by 1.6%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.8%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 35.17%, vs 37.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
33.6
Actual
32
Consensus
32.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.29 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 32.95
Actual: 33.6
Error: -0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Japan) was reported at 33.6% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 32% by 1.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 32.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 36.21%, ranging from 33.6% to 40% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 37.17%, up from the prior three at 36.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.99%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.71%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 34.42%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.29%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jun 19) and CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - JP
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About Consumer Confidence — Japan
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 33.6 %, consensus 32 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 32.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 33.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.