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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Consumer Confidence climbed to 34.9% in July 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Consumer Confidence climbed to 34.9% in July 2026, up 1.1% from June's 33.8% reading. The reading matched the 34.2% consensus. Consumer Confidence has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 33.7%, vs 35.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
34.9
Actual
34.2
Consensus
33.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 34.55
Actual: 34.9
Error: -0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Japan) was reported at 34.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 34.2% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 33.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 36.09%, ranging from 33.6% to 40% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 34.1%, down from the prior three at 38.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.92%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.74%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 35.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 19) and Exports YoY (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - JP
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About Consumer Confidence — Japan
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 34.9 %, consensus 34.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 33.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 33.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -12.4 | 7.8 | 7.95 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | -1.9 | 10.8 | 12.68 | Medium |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 25.4 | 26.5 | 27.20 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -406.9 | -680 | -514.20 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 19.3 | 19.9 | 22.65 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.88 | -0.44 | -0.21 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.50 | High | |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.45 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.65 | Medium | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.2 | 51.5 | 51.15 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 55.1 | 55.10 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.7 | 52.8 | 52.45 | Low | |