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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Consumer Confidence fell to 35.4% in September 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Consumer Confidence fell to 35.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 35.5% reading. The reading matched the 35.3% consensus. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 35.2%, vs 33.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
35.4
Actual
35.3
Consensus
35.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.51 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 35.6
Actual: 35.4
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Japan) was reported at 35.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 35.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 35.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 36.16%, ranging from 33.6% to 40% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 35.27%, down from the prior three at 35.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.88%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.52%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Confidence has averaged 35.88%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.51%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 9) and Machinery Orders MoM (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - JP
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About Consumer Confidence — Japan
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 35.4 %, consensus 35.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 35.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 34.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 47.4 | 48.3 | 48 | 47.70 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 47 | 46.4 | 46.8 | 46.90 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending YoY | -3.1 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -3.35 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.30 | Medium |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders YoY | 60.4 | 64.7 | 61 | 60.70 | Low |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |