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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Markit Manufacturing PMI held to 58.4 in December 2013
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2013
United Kingdom Markit Manufacturing PMI held to 58.4 in December 2013. The reading matched the 56.3 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 53.16. Over the past 3 months, Markit Manufacturing PMI averaged 56.35, vs 54.77 in the prior 3-month window. Markit Manufacturing PMI is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
58.4
Actual
56.3
Consensus
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.38
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Dec 2013
Predicted: 56.13
Actual: 58.4
Error: -2.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Markit Manufacturing PMI (United Kingdom) was reported at 58.40 in December 2013. This beat the market consensus of 56.30 by 2.10.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 57.03, up from the prior three at 54.77.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.38.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2013.
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Markit Manufacturing PMI - UK
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About Markit Manufacturing PMI — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Markit Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in a particular country. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the economy by tracking changes in key factors such as production, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. This data is collected through surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry, making it a reliable and timely indicator of economic activity. Investors, policymakers, and businesses use Markit Manufacturing PMI to make informed decisions and stay ahead of market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2013): actual 58.4, consensus 56.3. Prior reading (Nov 2013): 56. Before that (Oct 2013): 56.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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