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United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash climbed to 52 in January 2026, released February 2026, up 0.2 from December's 51.8 reading. The reading matched the 51.9 consensus.
across last 5 releases
Feb 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (United Kingdom) was reported at 52.00 in January 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51.90 by 0.10. The reading rose from the previous value of 51.80. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
The UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for November 2025 matched expectations at 51.2, rising from October’s 50.2 and signaling a return to expansion after months of contraction. This 1.0-point increase reflects stabilizing manufacturing activity amid ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, with growth remaining modest but positive. Looking ahead, the Bank of England’s cautious monetary policy stance and geopolitical uncertainties suggest the sector’s recovery will be gradual and closely monitored. Updated 12/16/25
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 52, consensus 51.9. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 51.2. Before that (Nov 2025): 50.2.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Input YoY | 7.7 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Output MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Retail Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Input MoM | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 06:00 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | ||
| 06:00 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3 | 3.00 | High | ||
| 06:00 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 3 | 3.00 | High | ||
| 08:30 | House Price Index YoY | 0 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low | ||
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | Employment Change | 148 | 80 | 124.00 | Medium | ||
| 06:00 | Claimant Count Change | 26.5 | 25.8 | 25.25 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.20 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | HMRC Payrolls Change | -100 | -80 | -80.00 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Unemployment Rate | 5 | 5 | 4.95 | High | ||
| 06:00 | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | ||
| 11:00 | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | ||
| 11:00 | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 19 | 29 | 29.00 | Medium | ||
| 11:00 | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 89 | 79 | 79.00 | Medium | ||
| 11:00 | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | ||
| 11:00 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | ||