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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Current Account climbed to 4,062B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Current Account climbed to 4,062B in August 2026, released October 2026, up 1,073B from July's 2,989B reading. The print exceeded the 3,194.6B consensus by 867.4B. Current Account has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged 1,033B, vs 4,185.67B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4062
Actual
3194.6
Consensus
2989
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±983.54 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2,615.6
Actual: 4,062
Error: -1,446.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Japan) was reported at 4,062.00 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3,194.60 billion by 867.40 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 2,989.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3,159.06 billion, ranging from -923.00 billion to 7,288.00 billion across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2,042.67 billion, down from the prior three at 4,185.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 2,142.61 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1,248.50 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged 3,880.67 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 983.54 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Current Account - JP
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About Current Account — Japan
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4,062 T, consensus 3,194.6 T. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2,989 T. Before that (Jun 2026): 923 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |