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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan PPI YoY held to 3.8% in December 2024
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2025
Japan PPI YoY held to 3.8% in December 2024, released January 2025. The reading matched expectations. PPI YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PPI YoY averaged 3.55%, vs 2.77% in the prior 3-month window. PPI YoY is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.8
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 3.97
Actual: 3.8
Error: +0.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 3.8% in January 2025. This matched the market consensus of 3.8% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.63%, up from the prior three at 2.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Machinery Orders MoM (Oct 14) and Machinery Orders YoY (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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PPI YoY - JP
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About PPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
PPI YoY stands for Producer Price Index Year-over-Year and is a key economic indicator used to measure the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services over a 12-month period. It is often used as a gauge of inflationary pressures in the economy and can provide valuable insights into the overall health of the manufacturing sector. PPI YoY is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions about pricing strategies, production levels, and monetary policy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2024): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 3.7 %. Before that (Oct 2024): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.10 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.8 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.20 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.40 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | -3.7 | 3 | -1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 11.2 | 15.7 | 8.30 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.20 | Low | |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 6.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.73 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.50 | Low | |