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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Consumer Confidence climbed to 35.5% in August 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Consumer Confidence climbed to 35.5% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.6% from July's 34.9% reading. The reading matched the 35.0% consensus. Consumer Confidence has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged 34.35%, vs 33.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
35.5
Actual
35
Consensus
34.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.82 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 35.13
Actual: 35.5
Error: -0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (Japan) was reported at 35.5% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 35% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 34.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 36.15%, ranging from 33.6% to 40% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 34.73%, down from the prior three at 37.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.89%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.64%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.82%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - JP
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About Consumer Confidence — Japan
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 35.5 %, consensus 35 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 34.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 33.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 19.3 | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -1105.6 | -638.3 | -1052.6 | -1079.10 | High |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 28 | 27.9 | 26.3 | 27.15 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | -3.7 | 9.7 | -2.8 | -3.25 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 11.2 | 16.9 | 15.3 | 13.25 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.84 | -0.68 | -1 | -0.92 | Medium |