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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Retail Sales MoM fell to -4.1% in June 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Retail Sales MoM fell to -4.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 5.8% from May's 1.7% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 3.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.45%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 1.6%, vs 1.13% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-4.1
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: -4.1
Error: +4.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Japan) was reported at -4.1% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 3.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.09%, ranging from -4.1% to 4.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.3%, down from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.94%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged -0.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - JP
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About Retail Sales MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -4.1 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Monetary Base YoY | -13.7 | -13 | -13.00 | Low | |