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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Balance of Trade fell to -378.7B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Balance of Trade fell to -378.7B in May 2026, released June 2026, down 678B from April's 299.3B reading. The print exceeded the -564.6B consensus by 185.9B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 484.45B, vs 28.88B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
-378.7
Actual
-564.6
Consensus
299.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±212.44 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -398.8
Actual: -378.7
Error: -20.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Japan) was reported at -378.70 billion in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -564.60 billion by 185.90 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 299.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -120.90 billion, ranging from -637.60 billion to 301.90 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.50 billion, up from the prior three at -77.09 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 250.17 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 869.97 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -745.87 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 212.44 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 18) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - JP
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About Balance of Trade — Japan
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -378.7 T, consensus -564.6 T. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 301.9 T. Before that (Mar 2026): 667 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.