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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 3-Month Bill Auction climbed to 3.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US 3-Month Bill Auction climbed to 3.8% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.03% from July's 3.77% reading. The reading matched the 3.8% consensus.
Latest Release
3.800000
Actual
3.799900
Consensus
3.770000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
3-Month Bill Auction (United States) was reported at 3.8% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.8% by 0%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.77%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.69%, ranging from 3.54% to 3.91% across 45 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.76%, up from the prior three at 3.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.56%). In September readings over the past 3 years, 3-Month Bill Auction has averaged 4.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Monthly Report (Sep 10) and Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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3-Month Bill Auction - US
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About 3-Month Bill Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 3-Month Bill Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for short-term government debt securities. It is a highly anticipated event in the financial market as it provides insight into the current economic conditions and investor sentiment. The auction involves the sale of 3-month Treasury bills to investors, with the interest rate determined by competitive bidding. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it reflects the government's ability to borrow money and the overall health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.77 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.715 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 99.8 | 99.3 | 99.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.77 | 3.7999 | 3.80 | Low |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 18.06 | 14.56 | 11.7 | 14.88 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -0.3 | -2.6 | -1.3 | -0.80 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.563 | 157 | 157.08 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1779 | 1780 | 1787.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 205 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.25 | 206 | 207.25 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06 | 3.98 | 3.98 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.7 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Medium | |