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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Prices MoM held to 0.1% in December 2013
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased December 2013
US Core PCE Prices MoM held to 0.1% in December 2013. The reading matched the 0.1% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.13%.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Dec 2013
Predicted: 0.12
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Prices MoM (United States) was reported at 0.1% in December 2013. This matched the market consensus of 0.1% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2013.
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Core PCE Prices MoM - US
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About Core PCE Prices MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Core PCE prices MoM is a widely used financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy prices, on a month-over-month basis. It is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by economists and investors to assess the health of the economy. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall trend of consumer spending and can impact monetary policy decisions made by central banks.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2013): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Dec 2013): 0.1 %. Before that (Nov 2013): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.