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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS MBA Mortgage Market Index fell to 240.6 Points in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US MBA Mortgage Market Index fell to 240.6 Points in August 2026, released September 2026, down 6.7 Points from July's 247.3 Points reading.
Latest Release
240.600000
Actual
—
Consensus
247.300000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Market Index (United States) was reported at 240.60 Points in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 247.30 Points. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 308.58 Points, ranging from 240.00 Points to 389.60 Points across 40 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 244.40 Points, down from the prior three at 245.43 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 43.59 Points) is higher than the prior year (σ 30.61 Points). In September readings over the past 3 years, MBA Mortgage Market Index has averaged 270.11 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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MBA Mortgage Market Index - US
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About MBA Mortgage Market Index — United States
DEFINITION
The MBA Mortgage Market Index is a widely recognized and respected financial indicator that tracks the overall health and activity of the mortgage market. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and serves as a key tool for investors, lenders, and policymakers in making informed decisions. With its comprehensive data and timely updates, the MBA Mortgage Market Index is an essential resource for understanding and analyzing trends in the mortgage industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 240.6 Points. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 247.3 Points. Before that (Aug 2026): 245.3 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |