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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unemployment (% of Labor Force) climbed to 4.2 Percent in December 2025
World BankYearlyReleased December 2025
US Unemployment (% of Labor Force) climbed to 4.2 Percent in December 2025, up 0.18 Percent from November's 4.02 Percent reading.
Latest Release
4.198000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.022000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment (% of Labor Force) (United States) was reported at 4.20 Percent in December 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.02 Percent. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. In December readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment (% of Labor Force) has averaged 3.95 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Unemployment (% of Labor Force) - US
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About Unemployment (% of Labor Force) — United States
DEFINITION
US Unemployment (% of Labor Force) rose to 4.198% in December 2025, up from November 2024's 4.022%, marking a clear increase in joblessness. This rise signals a weakening labor market compared to the previous year-end level of 3.638% in December 2023. Market participants will watch upcoming employment data closely amid this upward trend. Updated 5/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary headwind in the projection.
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