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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) climbed to 336.12 in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
US CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) climbed to 336.12 in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.7 from March's 335.42 reading.
Latest Release
336.121000
Actual
—
Consensus
335.423000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.93 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.85 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) (United States) was reported at 336.12 Index 1982-84=100 in April 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 335.42 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 332.78 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 329.70 Index 1982-84=100 to 336.12 Index 1982-84=100 across 9 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 335.24 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 332.71 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.10 Index 1982-84=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.72 Index 1982-84=100). In May readings over the past 3 years, CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) has averaged 327.04 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) - US
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About CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) — United States
DEFINITION
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Core (All Items Less Food and Energy), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strips out the volatile food and energy components to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Core CPI is the Fed's preferred CPI subaggregate for assessing the persistence of inflation. Headline can swing on energy shocks that the Fed cannot directly address through policy; core isolates the broader pricing dynamics that respond to rate decisions. Sticky core readings (services ex-shelter especially) keep the Fed hawkish.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasuries | negative | high | Core stickiness signals slower disinflation |
| USD | positive | high | Restrictive policy expectations |
| S&P 500 | negative | medium | Discount-rate effect, modulated by growth implications |
FAQ
- Why does the Fed prefer core over headline?
- Core strips out food and energy, which are volatile and largely outside the reach of monetary policy.
- How does core CPI differ from core PCE?
- Core PCE is the Fed's formal target; core CPI is a related measure with a different basket weighting and methodology.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 336.1 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 335.4 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Mar 2026): 334.2 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.93) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -293 | -132.8 | -126.40 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -293 | -135.8 | -127.90 | Medium |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 95.6 | 94.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 334 | 334.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 334.71 | 334.71 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 103.1 | 128 | 139.00 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |