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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unit Labour Costs QoQ fell to 1.2% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Unit Labour Costs QoQ fell to 1.2% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from March's 1.3% reading. The reading missed the 1.3% consensus by 0.1%. Unit Labour Costs QoQ has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Unit Labour Costs QoQ is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
1.2
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.9
Actual: 1.2
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unit Labour Costs QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.2% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.1%, ranging from -1.9% to 4.4% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.43%, down from the prior three at 1.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.15%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.02%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Unit Labour Costs QoQ has averaged 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct 9) and WASDE Report (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Unit Labour Costs QoQ - US
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About Unit Labour Costs QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average cost of labor per unit of output in a given quarter compared to the previous quarter. It provides valuable insights into the efficiency and productivity of a country's labor market, as well as its overall economic health. A higher QoQ increase in unit labor costs may indicate rising inflationary pressures, while a lower increase or decrease may suggest improved cost competitiveness. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall performance of an economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1699 | 1710 | 1713.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 200.5 | 198 | 198.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 199 | 200 | 198.50 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 64 | 79 | 82.00 | Low |
| 15:15 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.65 | Medium |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 96 | 96.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |