Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unit Labour Costs QoQ held to 1.3% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Unit Labour Costs QoQ held to 1.3% in Q2 2026, released August 2026. The reading missed the 2.1% consensus by 0.8%. Unit Labour Costs QoQ has now declined for 4 consecutive months. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
2.1
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1.75
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unit Labour Costs QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.1% by 0.8%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.07%, ranging from -1.9% to 4.4% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.5%, up from the prior three at -0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.15%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.1%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Unit Labour Costs QoQ has averaged 1.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Aug 19) and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Unit Labour Costs QoQ - US
Loading chart data...
About Unit Labour Costs QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average cost of labor per unit of output in a given quarter compared to the previous quarter. It provides valuable insights into the efficiency and productivity of a country's labor market, as well as its overall economic health. A higher QoQ increase in unit labor costs may indicate rising inflationary pressures, while a lower increase or decrease may suggest improved cost competitiveness. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall performance of an economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 19.7 | -4.7 | -6.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.415 | 1.35 | 1.34 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 8.90 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5 | -2.6 | 1.2 | 3.47 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.443 | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.40 | High |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.35 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.2 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1.29 | 1 | 1.05 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | -4.8 | 0.3 | -1.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -0.40 | Medium |
| 14:20 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 17.422 | -0.6 | -3.08 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -0.968 | -1.2 | -0.92 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.01 | -0.9 | -0.16 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 36 | 15 | 18.00 | Low | |