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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unit Labour Costs QoQ fell to 1.8% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Unit Labour Costs QoQ fell to 1.8% in Q1 2026, released June 2026, down 0.3% from December's 2.1% reading. The reading missed the 2.5% consensus by 0.7%. Unit Labour Costs QoQ has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Unit Labour Costs QoQ averaged 3.35%, vs -0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 47th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.8
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.9 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.95
Actual: 1.8
Error: +1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unit Labour Costs QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.8% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.11%, ranging from -1.9% to 4.4% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3%, up from the prior three at -0.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.16%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.16%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Unit Labour Costs QoQ has averaged 4.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.9%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Services PMI (Jul 6) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Unit Labour Costs QoQ - US
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About Unit Labour Costs QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average cost of labor per unit of output in a given quarter compared to the previous quarter. It provides valuable insights into the efficiency and productivity of a country's labor market, as well as its overall economic health. A higher QoQ increase in unit labor costs may indicate rising inflationary pressures, while a lower increase or decrease may suggest improved cost competitiveness. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall performance of an economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.75) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.5 | 51.5 | 51.00 | High | |
| Tuesday, July 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low | |