Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Import Price Index (Ex Petroleum) climbed to 351.1 in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Import Price Index (Ex Petroleum) climbed to 351.1 in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.2 from June's 350.9 reading.
Latest Release
351.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
350.900000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Import Price Index (Ex Petroleum) (United States) was reported at 351.10 Index 2000=100 in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 350.90 Index 2000=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 311.86 Index 2000=100, ranging from 244.90 Index 2000=100 to 394.90 Index 2000=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 360.00 Index 2000=100, up from the prior three at 343.53 Index 2000=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 55.46 Index 2000=100) is higher than the prior year (σ 9.49 Index 2000=100). In August readings over the past 3 years, Import Price Index (Ex Petroleum) has averaged 312.03 Index 2000=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct 14) and Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Import Price Index (Ex Petroleum) - US
Loading chart data...
About Import Price Index (Ex Petroleum) — United States
DEFINITION
US Import Price Index (Ex Petroleum) rose to 351.100 in August, slightly above July’s 350.900. The index edged higher after a decline from June’s 378, signaling a stabilization in import prices excluding petroleum. Market focus remains on upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy adjustments. Updated 10/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 351.1 Index 2000=100. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 350.9 Index 2000=100. Before that (Jun 2026): 378 Index 2000=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.9 | 98.7 | 98 | 97.95 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.5 | -3.2 | -0.3 | 0.60 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.99 | 3.93 | 3.95 | 3.97 | High |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.05 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 334.131 | 335.8 | 335.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 334.98 | 336.8 | 336.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 334.98 | 336.65 | 336.65 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 37.8 | 28.4 | 42.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 10.3 | 10.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1710 | 1702.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 195.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 199 | 198.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |