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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS House Price Index YoY held to 1.7% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US House Price Index YoY held to 1.7% in March 2026, released May 2026. The reading missed the 1.8% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.26%. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index YoY averaged 1.65%, vs 1.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 13th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.7
Actual
1.8
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.41 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 1.7
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 1.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.8% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.13%, ranging from 1.6% to 3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.7%, down from the prior three at 1.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.71%). In May readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index YoY has averaged 4.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.41%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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House Price Index YoY - US
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About House Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The House Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling price of residential properties over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, allowing investors, policymakers, and individuals to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. A positive YoY change indicates a rise in property values, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to assess the strength of the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 1.7 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.