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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv fell to 2.9% in Q2 2024
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased July 2024
US Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv fell to 2.9% in Q2 2024, released July 2024, down 0.8% from March's 3.7% reading. The print exceeded the 2.7% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.19%.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.7
Consensus
3.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2024
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 2.9
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv (United States) was reported at 2.9% in July 2024. This beat the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.7%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.87%, down from the prior three at 3.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2024.
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Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv - US
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About Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv — United States
DEFINITION
Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy prices, on a quarterly basis. It is considered a more accurate measure of inflation as it excludes the effects of temporary price fluctuations. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers and investors as it provides insights into the overall health of the economy and can impact monetary policy decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2024): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Jan 2024): 3.7 %. Before that (Oct 2023): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.