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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI MoM climbed to 0.1% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
US CPI MoM climbed to 0.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.5% from June's -0.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.22%. Over the past 3 months, CPI MoM averaged 0.05%, vs 0.4% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.03
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (United States) was reported at 0.1% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.1% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug 19) and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI MoM - US
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About CPI MoM — United States
DEFINITION
US CPI MoM for August rose 0.10%, matching estimates and reversing July’s 0.40% decline. August’s modest increase signals a pause after last month’s contraction, maintaining a low inflation environment. Market focus remains on upcoming Fed decisions amid steady price pressures. Updated 8/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 19.7 | -4.7 | -6.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.415 | 1.35 | 1.34 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 8.90 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5 | -2.6 | 1.2 | 3.47 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.443 | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.40 | High |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.35 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.2 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1.29 | 1 | 1.05 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | -4.8 | 0.3 | -1.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -0.40 | Medium |
| 14:20 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 36 | 15 | 18.00 | Low | |