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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 5-Year Breakeven Inflation fell to 2.59 Percent in May 2026
FREDDailyReleased May 2026
US 5-Year Breakeven Inflation fell to 2.59 Percent in May 2026, down 0.07 Percent from April's 2.66 Percent reading.
Latest Release
2.590000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.660000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
5-Year Breakeven Inflation (United States) was reported at 2.59 Percent in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.66 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.43 Percent, ranging from 2.22 Percent to 2.72 Percent across 250 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.65 Percent, down from the prior three at 2.69 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.11 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.20 Percent). In May readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year Breakeven Inflation has averaged 2.40 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Leading Index MoM (May 22) and Fed Waller Speech (May 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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5-Year Breakeven Inflation - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.864 | -4.306 | -2.9 | -5.38 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 0.372 | 0.19 | -1.1 | -0.36 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -1.548 | -4.084 | -2.1 | -1.82 | Medium |
| Thursday, May 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.442 | 1.363 | 1.39 | 1.53 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.8 | 12 | -3.5 | -3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.465 | 1.507 | 1.41 | 1.44 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5.8 | -11.5 | 0.5 | 3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1776 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 204 | 203 | 202.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 26.7 | 18 | 15.73 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.9 | 51 | 51.1 | 50.88 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.5 | 51.60 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | 54.5 | 53.8 | 53.88 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.3 | 4 | 4 | 3.92 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 101 | 85 | 95 | 98.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8.50 | Low |