Loading page content
Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Global Economic Policy Uncertainty held to 371.1 in October 2025
FREDMonthlyReleased November 2025
US Global Economic Policy Uncertainty held to 371.1 in October 2025, released November 2025.
Latest Release
371.095352
Actual
—
Consensus
371.095352
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (United States) was reported at 371.10 (index) in October 2025. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 361.48 (index), down from the prior three at 372.94 (index). In November readings over the past 3 years, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty has averaged 287.22 (index).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2025.
SHARE
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty - US
Loading chart data...
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.7 | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.413 | 1.423 | 1.42 | 1.42 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6 | 6.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -15.4 | -8.5 | -2 | -8.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.392 | 1.43 | 1.30 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 11.2 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 10.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 2 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.25 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.07 | Medium |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -8.33 | -9.119 | -4.5 | -6.42 | Medium |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4 | 4.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.228 | -4.6 | -1.72 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.186 | -1 | -2.92 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.2 | -0.5 | -1.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1795 | 1800 | 1803.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 10 | 14.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 219 | 223 | 221.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 229 | 225 | 220.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 81.3 | 75 | 46.95 | Medium | |