Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Manufacturing Payrolls fell to 12,596 Thousands in March 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Manufacturing Payrolls fell to 12,596 Thousands in March 2026, released April 2026, down 2 Thousands from February's 12,598 Thousands reading.
Latest Release
12596.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
12598.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Payrolls (United States) was reported at 12,596.00 Thousands in March 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 12,598.00 Thousands. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12,598.70 Thousands, ranging from 12,580.00 Thousands to 12,625.00 Thousands across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 12,592.33 Thousands, up from the prior three at 12,585.00 Thousands. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.38 Thousands) is lower than the prior year (σ 50.52 Thousands). In April readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Payrolls has averaged 12,697.00 Thousands.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
SHARE
Manufacturing Payrolls - US
Loading chart data...
About Manufacturing Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the number of employees working in the manufacturing sector of the economy. This data is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. It provides valuable insights into the overall employment trends and can be used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A higher number of manufacturing payrolls is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, indicating increased production and consumer demand.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 12,596 Thousands. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 12,598 Thousands. Before that (Feb 2026): 12,583 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.