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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Manufacturing Payrolls climbed to 12,611 Thousands in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Manufacturing Payrolls climbed to 12,611 Thousands in June 2026, released July 2026, up 5 Thousands from May's 12,606 Thousands reading.
Latest Release
12611.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
12606.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Payrolls (United States) was reported at 12,611.00 Thousands in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 12,606.00 Thousands. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12,594.80 Thousands, ranging from 12,580.00 Thousands to 12,611.00 Thousands across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 12,604.00 Thousands, up from the prior three at 12,592.67 Thousands. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.98 Thousands) is lower than the prior year (σ 31.08 Thousands). In July readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Payrolls has averaged 12,680.67 Thousands.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Manufacturing Payrolls - US
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About Manufacturing Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the number of employees working in the manufacturing sector of the economy. This data is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. It provides valuable insights into the overall employment trends and can be used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A higher number of manufacturing payrolls is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, indicating increased production and consumer demand.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 12,611 Thousands. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 12,606 Thousands. Before that (May 2026): 12,595 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |