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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Productivity QoQ climbed to 1.4% in Q2 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Nonfarm Productivity QoQ climbed to 1.4% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, up 0.6% from March's 0.8% reading. The reading matched the 1.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.82%. The reading is in the 38th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
1.4
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: 1.4
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.4% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.4% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.5%, ranging from 0.3% to 4.9% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.03%, down from the prior three at 3.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.66%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.55%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ has averaged 2.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct 9) and CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ - US
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About Nonfarm Productivity QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key financial indicator that measures the efficiency and output of businesses and industries in the nonfarm sector. It calculates the change in productivity from one quarter to the next, providing valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact economic growth, inflation, and labor market trends. A positive Nonfarm Productivity QoQ indicates increased efficiency and output, while a negative reading may suggest a decline in productivity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 1.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.64) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1699 | 1710 | 1713.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 200.5 | 198 | 198.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 199 | 200 | 198.50 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 64 | 79 | 82.00 | Low |
| 15:15 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.65 | Medium |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 96 | 96.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |