Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Productivity QoQ climbed to 1.4% in Q2 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Nonfarm Productivity QoQ climbed to 1.4% in Q2 2026, released August 2026, up 0.6% from March's 0.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.6% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.8%. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 1.4
Error: -0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.4% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.77%, ranging from 0.3% to 4.9% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.17%, down from the prior three at 4.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.62%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.44%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ has averaged 2.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug 19) and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ - US
Loading chart data...
About Nonfarm Productivity QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a key financial indicator that measures the efficiency and output of businesses and industries in the nonfarm sector. It calculates the change in productivity from one quarter to the next, providing valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact economic growth, inflation, and labor market trends. A positive Nonfarm Productivity QoQ indicates increased efficiency and output, while a negative reading may suggest a decline in productivity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.55) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 19.7 | -4.7 | -6.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.415 | 1.35 | 1.34 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 8.90 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5 | -2.6 | 1.2 | 3.47 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.443 | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.40 | High |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.35 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.2 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1.29 | 1 | 1.05 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | -4.8 | 0.3 | -1.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -0.40 | Medium |
| 14:20 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 36 | 15 | 18.00 | Low | |