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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Overall Net Capital Flows climbed to 147.8B in June 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Overall Net Capital Flows climbed to 147.8B in June 2023, released August 2023, up 309.4B from May's -161.6B reading. The print exceeded the 42.8B consensus by 105.0B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 87.69B. Over the past 3 months, Overall Net Capital Flows averaged -59.6B, vs 89.27B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
147.8
Actual
42.8
Consensus
-161.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±81.44 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: -131.25
Actual: 147.8
Error: -279.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overall Net Capital Flows (United States) was reported at 132.20 billion in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 76.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 77.36 billion, ranging from -37.30 billion to 212.00 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 103.00 billion, up from the prior three at 77.30 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 84.97 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 127.24 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Overall Net Capital Flows has averaged 153.03 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 81.44 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Overall Net Capital Flows - US
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About Overall Net Capital Flows — United States
DEFINITION
Overall Net Capital Flows is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of money flowing into or out of a country's economy from foreign sources. It takes into account both investments and loans, and provides insight into the overall health and stability of a country's economy. A positive net capital flow indicates that more money is entering the country than leaving, which can stimulate economic growth, while a negative net capital flow may signal potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value, interest rates, and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 132.2 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 26.1 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 150.7 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |