United StatesUS Overall Net Capital Flows climbed to 147.8B in June 2023
US Overall Net Capital Flows climbed to 147.8B in June 2023, released August 2023, up 309.4B from May's -161.6B reading. The print exceeded the 42.8B consensus by 105.0B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 87.69B. Over the past 3 months, Overall Net Capital Flows averaged -59.6B, vs 89.27B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Median Absolute Error
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overall Net Capital Flows (United States) was reported at 199.80 billion in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 87.40 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 100.97 billion, ranging from -37.30 billion to 212.00 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 139.00 billion, up from the prior three at 103.00 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 84.52 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 140.38 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 81.44 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
Overall Net Capital Flows - US
About Overall Net Capital Flows — United States
DEFINITION
Overall Net Capital Flows is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of money flowing into or out of a country's economy from foreign sources. It takes into account both investments and loans, and provides insight into the overall health and stability of a country's economy. A positive net capital flow indicates that more money is entering the country than leaving, which can stimulate economic growth, while a negative net capital flow may signal potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value, interest rates, and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 199.8 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 87.4 B. Before that (Jun 2026, first reported): 133.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 222.33B (latest print 147.8B). The 3-month forecast is 267.4B. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |