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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Overall Net Capital Flows climbed to 147.8B in June 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Overall Net Capital Flows climbed to 147.8B in June 2023, released August 2023, up 309.4B from May's -161.6B reading. The print exceeded the 42.8B consensus by 105.0B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 87.69B. Over the past 3 months, Overall Net Capital Flows averaged -59.6B, vs 89.27B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
147.8
Actual
42.8
Consensus
-161.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±81.44 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: -131.25
Actual: 147.8
Error: -279.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overall Net Capital Flows (United States) was reported at 83.70 billion in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 135.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 91.09 billion, ranging from -37.30 billion to 212.00 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 116.47 billion, up from the prior three at 50.60 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 82.36 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 136.07 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Overall Net Capital Flows has averaged 80.77 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 81.44 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Oct 16) and Export Prices MoM (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Overall Net Capital Flows - US
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About Overall Net Capital Flows — United States
DEFINITION
Overall Net Capital Flows is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of money flowing into or out of a country's economy from foreign sources. It takes into account both investments and loans, and provides insight into the overall health and stability of a country's economy. A positive net capital flow indicates that more money is entering the country than leaving, which can stimulate economic growth, while a negative net capital flow may signal potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value, interest rates, and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 83.7 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 133.5 B. Before that (May 2026): 132.2 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.9 | 37.8 | 28.4 | 24.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1714 | 1710 | 1706.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 200 | 193.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.44 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 198.25 | 199 | 197.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.75 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 67 | 85 | 76 | 73.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.518 | 0.382 | -0.5 | 1.51 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.557 | -3.186 | -0.3 | -4.43 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.527 | -0.042 | -1.6 | -2.06 | Low |
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | 1 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 7.9 | 8.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 0.80 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.5 | 76.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 75.2 | 75.20 | Medium | |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 31 | 31.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |