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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Overall Net Capital Flows climbed to 147.8B in June 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Overall Net Capital Flows climbed to 147.8B in June 2023, released August 2023, up 309.4B from May's -161.6B reading. The print exceeded the 42.8B consensus by 105.0B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 87.69B. Over the past 3 months, Overall Net Capital Flows averaged -59.6B, vs 89.27B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
147.8
Actual
42.8
Consensus
-161.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±81.44 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: -131.25
Actual: 147.8
Error: -279.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overall Net Capital Flows (United States) was reported at 83.70 billion in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 135.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 91.09 billion, ranging from -37.30 billion to 212.00 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 116.47 billion, up from the prior three at 50.60 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 82.36 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 136.07 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Overall Net Capital Flows has averaged 80.77 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 81.44 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Overall Net Capital Flows - US
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About Overall Net Capital Flows — United States
DEFINITION
Overall Net Capital Flows is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of money flowing into or out of a country's economy from foreign sources. It takes into account both investments and loans, and provides insight into the overall health and stability of a country's economy. A positive net capital flow indicates that more money is entering the country than leaving, which can stimulate economic growth, while a negative net capital flow may signal potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value, interest rates, and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 83.7 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 133.5 B. Before that (May 2026): 132.2 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | 11 | 9 | 2.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -8 | -6 | -3.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | 4 | 5 | 1.50 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 53.60 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.20 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 201 | 196.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -255 | -255.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1750 | 1760.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.7 | 4.3 | -2.7 | -2.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.394 | 1.433 | 1.394 | 1.39 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.62 | 0.62 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |
| Friday, September 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.95 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.8 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 47.70 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 51.9 | 49.5 | 50.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4 | 4.6 | 4.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 45.8 | 51.5 | 45.8 | 45.80 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 452 | 453 | 453.00 | Low | |