Loading page content
Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index held to 129.63 in March 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Core PCE Price Index held to 129.63 in March 2026, released April 2026.
Latest Release
129.630000
Actual
—
Consensus
129.630000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index (United States) was reported at 129.63 Index 2017=100 in March 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 127.90 Index 2017=100, ranging from 126.43 Index 2017=100 to 129.63 Index 2017=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 129.28 Index 2017=100, up from the prior three at 127.93 Index 2017=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.06 Index 2017=100) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.03 Index 2017=100). In April readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index has averaged 125.81 Index 2017=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Building Permits MoM (Jun 16) and Building Permits (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
SHARE
Core PCE Price Index - US
Loading chart data...
About Core PCE Price Index — United States
DEFINITION
US Core PCE Price Index rose to 128.394000 in December from November’s 127.929000, marking a 0.36% month-over-month increase. The index continues its upward trend but at a moderating pace, with a 2.3% year-over-year rise down from 2.5% in October. Market reaction was muted as the data aligns with ongoing disinflation, supporting expectations for a steady Federal Reserve policy stance. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 129.6 Index 2017=100. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 129.3 Index 2017=100. Before that (Feb 2026): 128.9 Index 2017=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.