United StatesUS PCE Prices QoQ Adv climbed to 4.2% in Q1 2023
US PCE Prices QoQ Adv climbed to 4.2% in Q1 2023, released April 2023, up 0.5% from December's 3.7% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 3.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.45%. PCE Prices QoQ Adv is now the highest in 6 months.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Median Absolute Error
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Apr 2023
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Prices QoQ Adv (United States) was reported at 2.6% in July 2024. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.57%, down from the prior three at 3.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2024.
PCE Prices QoQ Adv - US
About PCE Prices QoQ Adv — United States
DEFINITION
PCE Prices QoQ Adv is a financial indicator that measures the quarterly change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This index is a key measure of inflation and reflects the average price changes of goods and services purchased by individuals and households in the United States. The PCE Prices QoQ Adv provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2024): actual 2.6 %. Prior reading (Jan 2024): 3.4 %. Before that (Oct 2023, first reported): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 2.5% (latest print 4.2%). The 3-month forecast is 2.3%. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |