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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Employment Cost - Wages QoQ fell to 0.7% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
US Employment Cost - Wages QoQ fell to 0.7% in Q1 2026, released February 2026, down 0.1% from December's 0.8% reading. The reading missed the 0.8% consensus by 0.1%.
Latest Release
0.700000
Actual
0.800000
Consensus
0.800000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 0.7
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (United States) was reported at 0.7% in January 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.83%, unchanged from the prior three.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Employment Cost - Wages QoQ - US
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About Employment Cost - Wages QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in wages and salaries for employees on a quarterly basis. It provides valuable insight into the overall labor market and can be used to assess the health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by businesses, investors, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, inflation, and overall economic growth. A positive change in Employment Cost - Wages QoQ indicates an increase in wages and potentially a stronger job market, while a negative change may suggest a slowdown in employment and wage growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.7 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.