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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI Energy fell to 319.29 in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US CPI Energy fell to 319.29 in May 2026, released June 2026, down 19.35 from April's 338.64 reading.
Latest Release
319.290000
Actual
—
Consensus
338.639000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI Energy (United States) was reported at 319.29 Index 1982-84=100 in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 338.64 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 301.51 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 280.70 Index 1982-84=100 to 338.64 Index 1982-84=100 across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 327.97 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 292.89 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 21.49 Index 1982-84=100) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.18 Index 1982-84=100). In June readings over the past 3 years, CPI Energy has averaged 291.38 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago PMI (Aug 28) and Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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CPI Energy - US
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About CPI Energy — United States
DEFINITION
US CPI Energy rose to 338.639 in May, up from April’s 325.978, marking a continued increase in energy costs. This MoM gain signals persistent inflationary pressure in the energy sector. Market participants will watch for further inflation data and Federal Reserve responses amid ongoing price rises. Updated 7/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 319.3 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (May 2026): 338.6 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Apr 2026): 326 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 204.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 205.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.92 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.27 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.38 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1784.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.88 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 57 | 63.10 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51 | 55.2 | 51 | 51.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 50.6 | 55.4 | 50.6 | 50.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.8 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low | |