United StatesUS Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat climbed to 1.85B in Q2 2026
US Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat climbed to 1.85B in Q2 2026, released September 2026, up 0.92B from May's 0.92B reading. The reading matched the 1.83B consensus.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Median Absolute Error
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat (United States) was reported at 1.85 billion in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.83 billion by 0.01 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.92 billion.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.36 billion, down from the prior three at 1.55 billion. In September readings over the past 3 years, Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat has averaged 1.98 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.02 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat - US
About Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat — United States
DEFINITION
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat is a financial indicator that measures the amount of wheat held in storage by commercial grain facilities at the end of each quarter. This data is used by investors, traders, and analysts to track the supply and demand of wheat, and to make informed decisions about the future price movements of this important commodity. It provides valuable insights into the current inventory levels and can help predict potential shifts in the market. Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat is a key tool for understanding the health of the wheat industry and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.845 B, consensus 1.83 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.92 B. Before that (Mar 2026, first reported): 1.3 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 1.9B (latest print 1.85B). The 3-month forecast is 2.01B. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |