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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index held to 131.39 in May 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased June 2026
US PCE Price Index held to 131.39 in May 2026, released June 2026.
Latest Release
131.392000
Actual
—
Consensus
131.392000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index (United States) was reported at 131.39 Index 2017=100 in May 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 129.50 Index 2017=100, ranging from 127.63 Index 2017=100 to 131.54 Index 2017=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 131.29 Index 2017=100, up from the prior three at 129.61 Index 2017=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.40 Index 2017=100) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.98 Index 2017=100). In June readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index has averaged 127.22 Index 2017=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Aug 19) and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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PCE Price Index - US
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About PCE Price Index — United States
DEFINITION
The US PCE Price Index rose to 131.527 in May, up from April’s 130.938, marking a continued increase in consumer inflation. This month-over-month gain reflects persistent price pressures as the index advances steadily. Market participants will watch upcoming data for further inflation trends amid ongoing Federal Reserve policy adjustments. Updated 6/26/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 131.4 Index 2017=100. Prior reading (May 2026): 131.5 Index 2017=100. Before that (Apr 2026): 130.9 Index 2017=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 19.7 | -4.7 | -6.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.415 | 1.35 | 1.34 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 8.90 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5 | -2.6 | 1.2 | 3.47 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.443 | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.40 | High |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.35 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.2 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1.29 | 1 | 1.05 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | -4.8 | 0.3 | -1.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -0.40 | Medium |
| 14:20 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |