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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS HMRC Payrolls Change climbed to 21K in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US HMRC Payrolls Change climbed to 21K in January 2025, released February 2025, up 35K from December's -14K reading. The print exceeded the -55K consensus by 76K.
Latest Release
21.000000
Actual
-55.000000
Consensus
-14.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HMRC Payrolls Change (United States) was reported at 21 thousand in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of -55 thousand by 76 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of -14 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bank Stress Test Results (Jun 24) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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HMRC Payrolls Change - US
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About HMRC Payrolls Change — United States
DEFINITION
HMRC Payrolls Change is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of employees on payrolls in the United Kingdom. It is released monthly by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and provides valuable insights into the health of the UK labor market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the overall strength of the economy and can impact consumer spending and business confidence. A positive change in HMRC Payrolls indicates an increase in employment, while a negative change suggests a decrease in job opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | 55.1 | 54.8 | 55.25 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.7 | 51 | 51.15 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 51.5 | 50.8 | 51.50 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 13 | 9 | 6.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -1 | 14 | 11 | 5.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 3 | 16 | 9 | 6.00 | Low |
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |