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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 4.5% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 4.5% in January 2025, released February 2025, down 1.7% from December's 6.2% reading. The reading missed the 6.0% consensus by 1.5%.
Latest Release
4.500000
Actual
6.000000
Consensus
6.200000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (United States) was reported at 4.5% in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of 6% by 1.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - US
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — United States
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.7 | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.413 | 1.423 | 1.42 | 1.42 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6 | 6.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -15.4 | -8.5 | -2 | -8.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.392 | 1.43 | 1.30 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 11.2 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 10.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 2 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.25 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.07 | Medium |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -8.33 | -9.119 | -4.5 | -6.42 | Medium |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.228 | -4.6 | -1.72 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.186 | -1 | -2.92 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.2 | -0.5 | -1.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1795 | 1800 | 1803.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 10 | 14.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 219 | 223 | 221.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 229 | 225 | 220.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 81.3 | 75 | 46.95 | Medium | |