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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity fell to 0.8 in October 2025
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsQuarterlyReleased January 2026
US Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity fell to 0.8 in October 2025, released January 2026, down 0.8 from September's 1.6 reading.
Latest Release
0.80
Latest (2026)
1.60
Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity (United States) was reported at 0.80 Index 2012=100 in October 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.60 Index 2012=100. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.53 Index 2012=100, up from the prior three at 1.57 Index 2012=100. In January readings over the past 3 years, Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity has averaged 0.03 Index 2012=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity - US
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About Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity — United States
DEFINITION
US Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity rose 1.8% in September 2025, sharply down from August’s 5.2%. September’s gain marks a significant slowdown and falls below the 12-month average of 2.9%, reflecting ongoing volatility in productivity growth. Market reaction was muted as investors weigh the deceleration amid a cautious economic outlook heading into year-end. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.8 Index 2012=100. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1.6 Index 2012=100. Before that (Jul 2025): 5.2 Index 2012=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.