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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI Rent of Primary Residence climbed to 449.32 in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
US CPI Rent of Primary Residence climbed to 449.32 in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.78 from June's 448.54 reading.
Latest Release
449.321000
Actual
—
Consensus
448.542000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.87 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI Rent of Primary Residence (United States) was reported at 449.32 Index 1982-84=100 in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 448.54 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 444.22 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 439.00 Index 1982-84=100 to 449.32 Index 1982-84=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 448.42 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 444.85 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.49 Index 1982-84=100) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.76 Index 1982-84=100). In August readings over the past 3 years, CPI Rent of Primary Residence has averaged 436.39 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI Rent of Primary Residence - US
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About CPI Rent of Primary Residence — United States
DEFINITION
US CPI Rent of Primary Residence rose to 449.321 in August, up from July’s 448.542, marking a steady increase. The August reading continues the gradual upward trend observed since November 2025, reflecting persistent rent inflation. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data for further signals on Federal Reserve policy. Updated 10/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 449.3 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 448.5 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Jun 2026): 447.4 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.87) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |