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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate climbed to 6.97% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate climbed to 6.97% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.12% from July's 6.85% reading.
Latest Release
6.970000
Actual
—
Consensus
6.850000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.41 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Oct 2024
Predicted: 5.8
Actual: 6.36
Error: -0.56
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (United States) was reported at 6.97% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.85%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.47%, ranging from 6.09% to 6.97% across 44 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 6.87%, up from the prior three at 6.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.2%). In September readings over the past 3 years, MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate has averaged 6.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23) and S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate - US
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About MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. This rate is based on data collected from a variety of lenders and serves as a valuable tool for individuals and businesses looking to track trends in the housing market and make informed decisions about mortgage financing. As a key benchmark for the real estate industry, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate provides valuable insights into the current state of the economy and can help guide financial planning and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 6.97 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 6.85 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 6.79 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | 11 | 9 | 2.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -8 | -6 | -3.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | 4 | 5 | 1.50 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 53.60 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.20 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 201 | 196.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -255 | -255.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1750 | 1760.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.7 | 4.3 | -2.7 | -2.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.394 | 1.433 | 1.394 | 1.39 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.62 | 0.62 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |
| Friday, September 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.95 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.8 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 47.70 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 51.9 | 49.5 | 50.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4 | 4.6 | 4.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 45.8 | 51.5 | 45.8 | 45.80 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 452 | 453 | 453.00 | Low | |