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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate climbed to 6.81% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate climbed to 6.81% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.05% from June's 6.76% reading.
Latest Release
6.810000
Actual
—
Consensus
6.760000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.41 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Oct 2024
Predicted: 5.8
Actual: 6.36
Error: -0.56
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (United States) was reported at 6.81% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.76%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.44%, ranging from 6.09% to 6.81% across 44 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 6.75%, up from the prior three at 6.61%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.23%). In August readings over the past 3 years, MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate has averaged 6.81%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate - US
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About MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. This rate is based on data collected from a variety of lenders and serves as a valuable tool for individuals and businesses looking to track trends in the housing market and make informed decisions about mortgage financing. As a key benchmark for the real estate industry, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate provides valuable insights into the current state of the economy and can help guide financial planning and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 6.81 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 6.76 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 6.69 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.4 | 61.5 | 61.6 | 61.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.90 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | -23 | 20 | 80 | 28.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.15 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 5 | 11 | 4 | 4.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Government Payrolls | -53 | -10 | 10 | -21.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 30 | 30 | 78 | 54.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 454 | 451 | 452 | 453.00 | Low |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 14.17 | -1.08 | 10.5 | 12.34 | Low |
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |