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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Richmond Fed Services Index climbed to 14 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Richmond Fed Services Index climbed to 14 in May 2026, up 5 from April's 9 reading. The print exceeded the 8 consensus by 6. Richmond Fed Services Index has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Richmond Fed Services Index is now the highest in 54 months.
Latest Release
14
Actual
8
Consensus
9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±15.25
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 8
Actual: 14
Error: -6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Richmond Fed Services Index (United States) was reported at 14.00 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 8.00 by 6.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.33, up from the prior three at -1.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 15.25.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Building Permits MoM (Jun 16) and Building Permits (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Richmond Fed Services Index - US
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About Richmond Fed Services Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Richmond Fed Services Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the overall performance of the services sector in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes the states of Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and most of West Virginia. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the region's service industries, such as retail, healthcare, and professional services. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to assess the current and future economic conditions in the region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 14, consensus 8. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 9. Before that (Jan 2025): 4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.