United StatesUS 2-Year FRN Auction fell to 0.04% in October 2026
US 2-Year FRN Auction fell to 0.04% in October 2026, down 0.0% from September's 0.04% reading.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
2-Year FRN Auction (United States) was reported at 0.04% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.04%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.09%, ranging from 0.04% to 0.17% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.04%, down from the prior three at 0.14%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.05%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.04%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 2-Year FRN Auction has averaged 0.14%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
2-Year FRN Auction - US
About 2-Year FRN Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 2-Year FRN Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for short-term debt securities issued by the government. This auction allows investors to purchase floating rate notes (FRNs) with a maturity of two years, providing a reliable and flexible investment option. The results of this auction can provide valuable insights into the current market sentiment and interest rates, making it a key indicator for financial analysts and investors.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.038 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.04 %. Before that (Aug 2026, first reported): 0.055 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 0.01% (latest print 0.04%). The 3-month forecast is -0.04%. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.74) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |