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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 15-Year Mortgage Rate climbed to 6.04% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US 15-Year Mortgage Rate climbed to 6.04% in July 2026, up 0.08% from June's 5.96% reading.
Latest Release
6.040000
Actual
—
Consensus
5.960000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
15-Year Mortgage Rate (United States) was reported at 6.04% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.96%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.61%, ranging from 5.35% to 6.04% across 45 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.98%, up from the prior three at 5.82%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In July readings over the past 3 years, 15-Year Mortgage Rate has averaged 5.98%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC Gold Speculative net positions (Jul 31) and CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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15-Year Mortgage Rate - US
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About 15-Year Mortgage Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The 15-Year Mortgage Rate is a financial indicator that measures the average interest rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage. This indicator is used by lenders and borrowers to assess the cost of borrowing money for a home purchase or refinance. It is also a key factor in determining the monthly mortgage payment and overall affordability of a home loan. The 15-Year Mortgage Rate is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can provide insights into the health of the housing market and overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 6.04 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.96 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.93 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 198.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1791.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 206.38 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.45 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.95 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 31.50 | Low |