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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Government Payrolls fell to 8K in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Government Payrolls fell to 8K in June 2026, released July 2026, down 24K from May's 32K reading. The reading missed the 10K consensus by 2K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.08K. Over the past 3 months, Government Payrolls averaged 22K, vs -10.75K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
8
Actual
10
Consensus
32
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±16.75 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 31.5
Actual: 8
Error: +23.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Payrolls (United States) was reported at 8 thousand in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 10 thousand by 2 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 32 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2 thousand, ranging from -42 thousand to 52 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18 thousand, up from the prior three at -11 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 25 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 12 thousand).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 17 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Government Payrolls - US
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About Government Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Government Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the total number of employees working for the government at the federal, state, and local levels. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the government sector, as well as its impact on the economy. It is often used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the strength of the labor market and make informed decisions about economic policies and investments.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 8 K, consensus 10 K. Prior reading (May 2026): 52 K. Before that (Apr 2026): -8 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |