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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Government Payrolls climbed to 35K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Government Payrolls climbed to 35K in August 2026, released September 2026, up 85K from July's -50K reading. The print exceeded the -11K consensus by 46K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -4.42K. Over the past 3 months, Government Payrolls averaged -22.5K, vs 12K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
35
Actual
-11
Consensus
-50
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±21.5 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -27.25
Actual: 35
Error: -62.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Payrolls (United States) was reported at 35 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -11 thousand by 46 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of -50 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3 thousand, ranging from -53 thousand to 52 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -3 thousand, down from the prior three at 1 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 32 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 18 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Government Payrolls has averaged 14 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 22 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Government Payrolls - US
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About Government Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Government Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the total number of employees working for the government at the federal, state, and local levels. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the government sector, as well as its impact on the economy. It is often used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the strength of the labor market and make informed decisions about economic policies and investments.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 35 K, consensus -11 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -53 K. Before that (Jun 2026): 8 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |