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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Prices QoQ climbed to 4.4% in Q1 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Core PCE Prices QoQ climbed to 4.4% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, up 1.7% from December's 2.7% reading. The reading matched the 4.3% consensus. Core PCE Prices QoQ has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core PCE Prices QoQ averaged 3.23%, vs 2.8% in the prior 3-month window. Core PCE Prices QoQ is now the highest in 34 months.
Latest Release
4.4
Actual
4.3
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 4.3
Actual: 4.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Prices QoQ (United States) was reported at 4.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.98%, ranging from 2.5% to 4.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.27%, up from the prior three at 2.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.62%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.5%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Prices QoQ has averaged 3.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Core PCE Prices QoQ - US
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About Core PCE Prices QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Core PCE prices QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services, excluding food and energy, on a quarterly basis. It is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by economists and policymakers. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and helps inform decisions related to monetary policy and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 4.4 %, consensus 4.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 4.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.44) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.