United StatesUS Philly Fed Prices Paid climbed to 20.8 in August 2023
US Philly Fed Prices Paid climbed to 20.8 in August 2023, up 11.3 from July's 9.5 reading. The print exceeded the 10.1 consensus by 10.7. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 23.75. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Prices Paid averaged 10, vs 14.2 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Median Absolute Error
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Prices Paid (United States) was reported at 43.20 in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 48.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.08, ranging from 38.90 to 56.10 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 44.23, down from the prior three at 51.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.28) is lower than the prior year (σ 11.81). In October readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Prices Paid has averaged 40.70.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
Philly Fed Prices Paid - US
About Philly Fed Prices Paid — United States
DEFINITION
Philly Fed Prices Paid is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in prices paid by manufacturers in the Philadelphia region. This indicator provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures and the overall health of the manufacturing sector. It is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact monetary policy decisions and provide a glimpse into future economic trends. A higher reading indicates increasing prices, while a lower reading suggests a decrease in prices paid by manufacturers. Overall, Philly Fed Prices Paid is a crucial tool for understanding the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 43.2. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 48.6. Before that (Aug 2026, first reported): 40.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 39.63 (latest print 20.8). The 3-month forecast is 32.5. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |