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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Prices Paid climbed to 20.8 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Prices Paid climbed to 20.8 in August 2023, up 11.3 from July's 9.5 reading. The print exceeded the 10.1 consensus by 10.7. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 23.75. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Prices Paid averaged 10, vs 14.2 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
20.8
Actual
10.1
Consensus
9.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.75
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 10.05
Actual: 20.8
Error: -10.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.92 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Prices Paid (United States) was reported at 53.20 in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.26, ranging from 38.90 to 66.80 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 48.60, up from the prior three at 43.13. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.53) is lower than the prior year (σ 11.43). In June readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Prices Paid has averaged 39.03.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bank Stress Test Results (Jun 24) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Philly Fed Prices Paid - US
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About Philly Fed Prices Paid — United States
DEFINITION
Philly Fed Prices Paid is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in prices paid by manufacturers in the Philadelphia region. This indicator provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures and the overall health of the manufacturing sector. It is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact monetary policy decisions and provide a glimpse into future economic trends. A higher reading indicates increasing prices, while a lower reading suggests a decrease in prices paid by manufacturers. Overall, Philly Fed Prices Paid is a crucial tool for understanding the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 53.2. Prior reading (May 2026): 47.9. Before that (Apr 2026): 59.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.92) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | 55.1 | 54.8 | 55.25 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.7 | 51 | 51.15 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 51.5 | 50.8 | 51.50 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 13 | 9 | 6.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -1 | 14 | 11 | 5.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 3 | 16 | 9 | 6.00 | Low |
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |