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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Prices Paid climbed to 20.8 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Prices Paid climbed to 20.8 in August 2023, up 11.3 from July's 9.5 reading. The print exceeded the 10.1 consensus by 10.7. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 23.75. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Prices Paid averaged 10, vs 14.2 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
20.8
Actual
10.1
Consensus
9.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.75
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 10.05
Actual: 20.8
Error: -10.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Prices Paid (United States) was reported at 53.90 in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 53.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.82, ranging from 38.90 to 66.80 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 51.67, up from the prior three at 43.50. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.15) is lower than the prior year (σ 11.75). In July readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Prices Paid has averaged 44.17.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Philly Fed Prices Paid - US
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About Philly Fed Prices Paid — United States
DEFINITION
Philly Fed Prices Paid is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in prices paid by manufacturers in the Philadelphia region. This indicator provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures and the overall health of the manufacturing sector. It is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact monetary policy decisions and provide a glimpse into future economic trends. A higher reading indicates increasing prices, while a lower reading suggests a decrease in prices paid by manufacturers. Overall, Philly Fed Prices Paid is a crucial tool for understanding the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 53.9. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 53.2. Before that (May 2026): 47.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |