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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Prices Paid climbed to 20.8 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Prices Paid climbed to 20.8 in August 2023, up 11.3 from July's 9.5 reading. The print exceeded the 10.1 consensus by 10.7. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 23.75. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Prices Paid averaged 10, vs 14.2 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
20.8
Actual
10.1
Consensus
9.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.75
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 10.05
Actual: 20.8
Error: -10.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Prices Paid (United States) was reported at 48.60 in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 40.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.63, ranging from 38.90 to 56.10 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.80, down from the prior three at 48.60. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.16) is lower than the prior year (σ 12.58). In September readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Prices Paid has averaged 43.13.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Philly Fed Prices Paid - US
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About Philly Fed Prices Paid — United States
DEFINITION
Philly Fed Prices Paid is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in prices paid by manufacturers in the Philadelphia region. This indicator provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures and the overall health of the manufacturing sector. It is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact monetary policy decisions and provide a glimpse into future economic trends. A higher reading indicates increasing prices, while a lower reading suggests a decrease in prices paid by manufacturers. Overall, Philly Fed Prices Paid is a crucial tool for understanding the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 48.6. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 40.9. Before that (Jul 2026): 53.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | 11 | 9 | 2.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -8 | -6 | -3.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | 4 | 5 | 1.50 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 53.60 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.20 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 201 | 196.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -255 | -255.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1750 | 1760.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.7 | 4.3 | -2.7 | -2.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.394 | 1.433 | 1.394 | 1.39 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.62 | 0.62 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |
| Friday, September 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.95 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.8 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 47.70 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 51.9 | 49.5 | 50.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4 | 4.6 | 4.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 45.8 | 51.5 | 45.8 | 45.80 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 452 | 453 | 453.00 | Low | |