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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE YoY climbed to 1.5% in May 2014
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2014
US Core PCE YoY climbed to 1.5% in May 2014, released June 2014, up 0.1% from April's 1.4% reading.
Latest Release
1.500000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE YoY (United States) was reported at 1.5% in June 2014. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct 9) and CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2014.
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Core PCE YoY - US
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About Core PCE YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Core PCE YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it reflects the underlying trend in consumer spending. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it provides insights into the overall health of the economy and helps guide monetary policy decisions. A higher Core PCE YoY reading indicates increasing inflationary pressures, while a lower reading suggests a potential slowdown in consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2014): actual 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1699 | 1710 | 1713.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 200.5 | 198 | 198.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 199 | 200 | 198.50 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 64 | 79 | 82.00 | Low |
| 15:15 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.65 | Medium |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 96 | 96.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |