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This economic indicator provides insights into the current economic conditions and helps forecast future trends. The comparison between actual, consensus, and previous values helps analysts understand market expectations and economic momentum.
In summary, while the current Employment Cost Index QoQ remains below past peaks, it signifies a tranquil phase in wage inflation that keeps the economy within a delicate balancing act. This equilibrium offers some respite to financial markets concerned about strained profit margins, yet also prompts vigilance as other economic variables evolve. Understanding the interconnectedness of wage dynamics enables policymakers and investors to devise refined strategies, maintaining stability amidst complex economic landscapes.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve
Updated 6/7/25| Thursday, February 15, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.8 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.05 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 0.6 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 4.90 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.8 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.20 | High |
| 13:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | -2.4 | -43.7 | -15 | -21.52 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 5.2 | -10.6 | -8 | -5.60 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | -2.4 | -2.9 | -2.1 | -1.53 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 218.5 | 212.75 | 216 | 217.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | -1.3 | -2.4 | -1.7 | -1.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 212 | 220 | 220 | 220.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.8 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Medium |
| Wednesday, February 14, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 12.018 | 5.521 | 2.56 | 4.98 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.915 | -3.22 | -1.6 | -2.38 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -3.658 | -3.145 | -1.16 | -2.18 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI MoM | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.18 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | -0.08 | Low |
| Tuesday, February 13, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 8.52 | 0.674 | 2.6 | 3.07 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 308.417 | 306.746 | 307.986 | 308.13 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 309.685 | 308.742 | 309.4 | 309.63 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.78 | High |
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 89.9 | 91.9 | 91.1 | 91.10 | Low |
| Monday, February 12, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -22 | -129 | -21 | -37.19 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.92 | Low |
| Thursday, February 8, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -75 | -197 | -76 | -77.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.52 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 218 | 227 | 220 | 220.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 212.25 | 208.5 | 210 | 211.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1871 | 1894 | 1878 | 1887.33 | High |
| Wednesday, February 7, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 20:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 1.56 | 23.75 | 16 | 16.08 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -3.22 | -2.542 | -1 | -1.78 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 5.521 | 1.234 | 1.895 | 4.32 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -3.145 | 1.156 | 0.14 | -0.88 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 258.2 | 254.3 | 255 | 256.02 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 320.4 | 316.2 | 318 | 318.42 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -62.2 | -61.9 | -62.2 | -61.75 | Medium |
| Tuesday, February 6, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 0.674 | -2.5 | 2.133 | 2.60 | Medium |
| 15:10 | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index | 44 | 44.7 | 47.2 | 47.08 | Medium |
| Monday, February 5, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 53.4 | 50.5 | 52 | 51.85 | High |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.5 | 43.8 | 46 | 45.27 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 64 | 57.4 | 56.5 | 58.20 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55 | 52.8 | 53.1 | 52.85 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.8 | 55.8 | 57 | 57.02 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52 | 50.9 | 52.3 | 52.57 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.5 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 53.17 | High |
| Friday, February 2, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 77.1 | 67.4 | 75.9 | 78.43 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.05 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.2 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 79 | 69.7 | 78.9 | 81.13 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 81.9 | 73.3 | 83.3 | 85.53 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Government Payrolls | 36 | 55 | 20 | 29.50 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.25 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Participation Rate | 62.5 | 62.5 | 62.4 | 62.38 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.1 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.22 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 353 | 333 | 180 | 234.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 23 | 8 | 5 | 9.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 317 | 278 | 155 | 204.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Medium |
| Thursday, February 1, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -197 | -326 | -194 | -195.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 47.1 | 47.5 | 48.2 | 48.43 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 52.9 | 45.2 | 46.9 | 47.83 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 52.5 | 47 | 47.4 | 49.95 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 49.1 | 47.1 | 47 | 47.60 | High |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.7 | 47.9 | 47.2 | 48.68 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 0.5 | -1.1 | 1.6 | 1.05 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 224 | 215 | 212 | 212.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 3.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1898 | 1828 | 1840 | 1849.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 202.5 | 205 | 206.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 82.307 | 34.817 | 36 | 40.53 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 31, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.50 | High |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.542 | -1.417 | -0.425 | -1.20 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 1.234 | -9.233 | -0.217 | 2.21 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.156 | 4.913 | 1.483 | 0.46 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 46 | 47.2 | 48 | 47.00 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1 | 0.95 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 107 | 158 | 145 | 147.75 | High |
| Tuesday, January 30, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.5 | -6.674 | -0.867 | -0.40 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | -9.3 | -8.8 | -8 | -8.65 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | -3.6 | 4 | 3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.392 | 3.524 | 3.45 | 3.42 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 114.8 | 108 | 115 | 114.90 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 9.026 | 8.925 | 8.75 | 8.80 | High |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index | 417.4 | 416.1 | 417.5 | 417.45 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.60 | Medium |
| Monday, January 29, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -27.4 | -10.4 | -23 | -25.20 | Medium |
| Friday, January 26, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 1.3 | -5.4 | -3.4 | -1.05 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 8.3 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 4.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3 | 2.95 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.55 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| Thursday, January 25, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | -17 | -4 | -21 | -19.00 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | -9 | -1 | -9 | -9.00 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -326 | -154 | -322 | -323.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.664 | 0.615 | 0.645 | 0.65 | High |
| 15:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 8 | -9 | 8 | 8.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.40 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.55 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.15 | 0.01 | 0.1 | -0.02 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -88.46 | -89.33 | -88 | -88.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.95 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.70 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1833 | 1806 | 1828 | 1837.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ Adv | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 214 | 189 | 200 | 200.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM | 0.5 | 6.9 | -0.1 | 0.20 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 202.25 | 203.75 | 205 | 206.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.18 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.25 | Medium |
| 12:40 | US | Building Permits | 1.493 | 1.467 | 1.495 | 1.50 | Medium |
| 12:40 | US | Building Permits MoM | 1.8 | -2.1 | 1.9 | 2.13 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 24, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -9.233 | -2.492 | -2.15 | 0.27 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 4.913 | 3.083 | 2.3 | 1.28 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.417 | 2.37 | 0.348 | -0.43 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.3 | 50.9 | 50.3 | 50.57 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.9 | 51.4 | 51 | 51.27 | High |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 47.9 | 47.9 | 49.38 | High |
| Tuesday, January 23, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -6.674 | 0.483 | -3 | -2.53 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -15 | -11 | -7 | -11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 4 | 0 | -5 | -0.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -15 | -17 | -20 | -17.50 | Low |
| Monday, January 22, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | CB Leading Index MoM | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.20 | Low |
| Friday, January 19, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.05 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 75.9 | 67.4 | 67 | 69.53 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.35 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 78.8 | 69.7 | 70 | 72.22 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 83.3 | 73.3 | 73 | 75.22 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.78 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 3.80 | High |
| Thursday, January 18, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 2.37 | 6.528 | 0.88 | 0.10 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.083 | 8.029 | 2.15 | 1.13 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -2.492 | 1.338 | -0.313 | 2.11 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -154 | -140 | -164 | -165.00 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -10.6 | -12.8 | -7 | -4.60 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.495 | 1.467 | 1.48 | 1.48 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 203.25 | 208 | 208 | 209.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 203 | 207 | 207.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 1.9 | -2.1 | 0.9 | 1.13 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -4.3 | 10.8 | -8.3 | -6.30 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.46 | 1.525 | 1.426 | 1.44 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1806 | 1832 | 1845 | 1854.33 | High |
| Wednesday, January 17, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 0.483 | -5.215 | -2.4 | -1.93 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 44 | 37 | 39 | 41.50 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.9 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.55 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 78.6 | 78.6 | 78.7 | 78.65 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.05 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.45 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | -1 | -0.1 | 0.55 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5.6 | 4 | 4 | 3.10 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.05 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | -3.2 | -5.2 | -5.8 | -5.22 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.28 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.05 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.17 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.30 | High |
| Tuesday, January 16, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | -43.7 | -14.5 | -5 | -11.53 | High |
| Friday, January 12, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | 3 | 0.268 | 2.975 | 2.99 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | 12.169 | 1.361 | 12.05 | 12.11 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | 1.41 | 1.78 | 1.387 | 1.40 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 1.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.85 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.13 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.45 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.15 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.02 | High |
| Thursday, January 11, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -129 | -314 | -65.25 | -81.44 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -140 | -14 | -119 | -120.00 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 208 | 210 | 211.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 4 | 3.8 | 3.88 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 306.746 | 307.051 | 306.61 | 306.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1834 | 1868 | 1871 | 1880.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 308.85 | 307.917 | 308.2 | 308.43 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.30 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 202 | 203 | 210 | 210.33 | High |
| Wednesday, January 10, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 1.338 | -5.503 | -0.675 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 6.528 | 10.09 | 2.382 | 1.61 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 8.029 | 10.9 | 2.489 | 1.47 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.08 | Medium |
| Tuesday, January 9, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.215 | -7.418 | -1.2 | -0.73 | Medium |
| 15:05 | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index | 44.7 | 40 | 42 | 41.88 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 316.9 | 323.1 | 317.6 | 318.02 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 253.7 | 258.6 | 252.8 | 253.82 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -63.2 | -64.5 | -65 | -64.55 | High |
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 91.9 | 90.6 | 90.7 | 90.70 | Low |
| Monday, January 8, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 20:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 23.75 | 5.13 | 9 | 9.08 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.22 | Low |
| Friday, January 5, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.6 | 55.1 | 55.3 | 55.32 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 52.8 | 55.5 | 55.7 | 55.45 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 43.3 | 50.7 | 50.7 | 49.98 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 57.4 | 58.3 | 58.1 | 59.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.1 | -1.3 | 0.7 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 50.6 | 52.7 | 52.6 | 52.45 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 2.6 | -3.4 | 2.1 | 2.23 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Government Payrolls | 52 | 37 | 30 | 39.50 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 216 | 173 | 170 | 224.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 164 | 136 | 130 | 179.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.33 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.1 | 7 | 7.2 | 7.15 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 6 | 26 | 5 | 9.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Participation Rate | 62.5 | 62.8 | 62.7 | 62.68 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.1 | 4 | 3.9 | 4.05 | Medium |
| Thursday, January 4, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 10.09 | 0.741 | 0.588 | -0.19 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 10.9 | -0.669 | -0.215 | -1.23 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -5.503 | -7.114 | -3.725 | -1.30 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -14 | -87 | -40 | -41.00 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.9 | 50.7 | 51 | 51.27 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.4 | 50.8 | 51.3 | 51.57 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1855 | 1886 | 1883 | 1892.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 212.5 | 213 | 214.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 202 | 220 | 216 | 216.33 | High |
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 164 | 101 | 115 | 117.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 34.817 | 45.51 | 63 | 67.53 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 3, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -7.418 | 1.837 | -2.967 | -2.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 47.4 | 46.7 | 47.1 | 47.70 | High |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 8.79 | 8.852 | 8.85 | 8.90 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 48.1 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 46.33 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 45.2 | 49.9 | 47.5 | 48.42 | Low |
| Tuesday, January 2, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |