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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Employment Cost Index QoQ climbed to 0.9% in Q1 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Employment Cost Index QoQ climbed to 0.9% in Q1 2026, released April 2026, up 0.2% from December's 0.7% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.1%. Employment Cost Index QoQ is now the highest in 21 months.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Cost Index QoQ (United States) was reported at 0.9% in April 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.8%, down from the prior three at 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Employment Cost Index QoQ - US
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About Employment Cost Index QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
The Employment Cost Index QoQ is a quarterly measure of the change in the cost of labor for businesses in the United States. It takes into account wages, salaries, and benefits, providing valuable insight into the overall health of the labor market and the impact on business costs. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as a key measure of inflation and labor market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.7 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.