United StatesUS Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell to 45.18 in September 2026
US Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell to 45.18 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 5.27 from August's 50.45 reading.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (United States) was reported at 45.18 in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 50.45. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.79, ranging from 45.18 to 53.81 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 48.34, down from the prior three at 50.71. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.52) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.38).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI - US
About Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI — United States
DEFINITION
US Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell sharply to 45.180000 in October from September’s 50.450000, marking a clear contraction below the 50 threshold. This decline signals weakening consumer sentiment compared to the prior month’s expansion. Market focus will remain on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve communications amid this sentiment downturn. Updated 10/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 45.18. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 50.45. Before that (Aug 2026, first reported): 49.38.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 43.86 (latest print 45.18). The 3-month forecast is 41.22. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bearish USD, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |