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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's 4.2% reading. The reading matched expectations. Unemployment Rate has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 4.25%, vs 4.33% in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
4.1
Actual
4.2
Consensus
4.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.19
Actual: 4.1
Error: +0.09
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (United States) was reported at 4.1% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.33%, ranging from 4.1% to 4.6% across 19 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.13%, down from the prior three at 4.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.12%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.8%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 4.22%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - US
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About Unemployment Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.1 Percent. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.2 Percent. Before that (May 2026): 4.3 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |